2018 Midterm Predictions

69 posts / 0 new
Last post
anonymous_coward
Offline
Last seen: 8 hours 50 min ago
Joined: 10/21/2016 - 12:18pm
@Toolsmith:

@Toolsmith:

If that's the case, then why does Rasmussen (Tom C's special friend, which is clearly biased towards conservatives) always track with all the other polls?

It clearly shows higher average numbers for Trump, but the up and down is pretty much the same as the other polls.

Toolsmith
Offline
Last seen: 2 hours 12 min ago
Joined: 07/14/2016 - 11:22am
The story at the link didn't

The story at the link didn't claim the polls didn't track the same or similar, only that the position of the trend was false - shifted be sampling tricks and other deceptions.

anonymous_coward
Offline
Last seen: 8 hours 50 min ago
Joined: 10/21/2016 - 12:18pm
@Toolsmith: "The story at the

@Toolsmith: "The story at the link didn't claim the polls didn't track the same or similar, only that the position of the trend was false - shifted be sampling tricks and other deceptions."

There are polls biased both ways.

The reason I read 538 is they try to tease out the bias (by comparing historical poll results against actual voting booth results) and correct for it. And, after the election, they always do a post-mortem analysis of their own analysis and what they got right and what they got wrong. There is an extensive analysis of what they got wrong in 2016, more in-depth than any other on the internet.

Tom C
Offline
Last seen: 33 min 7 sec ago
Joined: 01/03/2006 - 6:00pm
I've looked over the 538

I've looked over the 538 state by state data, and I see them as projecting the House to the Dems by only 9 seats. I think that is a pretty thin margin to come up with a 1 in seven scenario.

anonymous_coward
Offline
Last seen: 8 hours 50 min ago
Joined: 10/21/2016 - 12:18pm
https://projects

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/hous...

Forecast (current - it gets updated daily I believe) has the Dems winning 229-206, with a popular vote margin of +8.4%.

Melvin Udall
Offline
Last seen: 25 min 4 sec ago
Joined: 05/01/2002 - 12:01am
Given the past experiences,

Given the past experiences, and the fact that at this point it doesn't really matter what the forecasters say.....other than as a game.....why bother. We'll know in short order.

It's like listening to arguments over who will make it to the super bowl, and who will win. Idle chatter to no real effect other than filling empty air.

JackStrawFromWichita
Offline
Last seen: 7 hours 47 min ago
Joined: 02/05/2014 - 6:17pm
1. Unless Trump engages in

1. Unless Trump engages in some sort of military incursion (troops, helicopters, drones…) into Mexico, we here little if anything more about “the caravan” after Tuesday.

2. Neither Golden or Poliquin take 50% and the 2nd district House race goes to ranked choice voting. Several weeks later Golden is determined to be the winner. Poliquin sues. The case ends up in the Supreme Court and their decision determines the future of ranked choice voting in this country.

Tom C
Offline
Last seen: 33 min 7 sec ago
Joined: 01/03/2006 - 6:00pm
That's goid reasoning, but I

That's good reasoning, but I'm hoping Polquin takes it outright.

johnw
Offline
Last seen: 3 hours 1 min ago
Joined: 03/11/2009 - 10:06am
If rank choice voting goes to

If ranked choice voting goes to the supreme court imagine the outrage on the left when Kavanaugh casts the deciding vote that it IS unconstitutional....So much fun in the offing.

Toolsmith
Offline
Last seen: 2 hours 12 min ago
Joined: 07/14/2016 - 11:22am
Suddenly, there MSM sounds
Toolsmith
Offline
Last seen: 2 hours 12 min ago
Joined: 07/14/2016 - 11:22am
Snowflakes out in the rain?

Snowflakes out in the rain?

Heavy rain forecast for most of Maine tomorrow. How does that affect the results? Specifically, will millennials go out to vote in the rain?

I think it may wash away the "blue wave", locally anyway. (That should be "red wave", but the MSM deceit dictates disassociation with the historical color of socialism/communism. No other place in the world uses blue for leftist parties - those parties proudly wave their red flags.)

How's the weather for election day elsewhere?

Toolsmith
Offline
Last seen: 2 hours 12 min ago
Joined: 07/14/2016 - 11:22am
One result guaranteed if the
Rebecca
Offline
Last seen: 1 day 1 hour ago
Joined: 05/07/2008 - 3:17pm
Pictures truly do speak

Pictures truly do speak louder than words.

anonymous_coward
Offline
Last seen: 8 hours 50 min ago
Joined: 10/21/2016 - 12:18pm
@jack: "1. Unless Trump

@jack: "1. Unless Trump engages in some sort of military incursion (troops, helicopters, drones…) into Mexico, we here little if anything more about “the caravan” after Tuesday."

Totally. What's even more amazing is some of the tinfoil hat conservative sites are saying it's the left that is constructing this, when it clearly favors the right. If anyone is bussing them up here, it's the alt-righters.

anonymous_coward
Offline
Last seen: 8 hours 50 min ago
Joined: 10/21/2016 - 12:18pm
@Toolsmith: "Suddenly, the

@Toolsmith: "Suddenly, the MSM sounds much less confident."

Relevant video clip:
https://www.rollingstone.com/tv/tv-news/snl-midterms-ad-751668/

Thomas Carter
Offline
Last seen: 1 hour 11 min ago
Joined: 12/03/2012 - 3:03pm
37 seat net gain for D's in

37 seat net gain for D's in the House. (We'll finally get to see Trump's tax returns!)

Janet Mills clears the 8 year old stench of stale bourbon and bigotry from the Blaine House.

Post-election finds Robert Swan Mueller III doling out indictments like candy. Fasten your seatbelts!

Toolsmith
Offline
Last seen: 2 hours 12 min ago
Joined: 07/14/2016 - 11:22am
I've seen 3 totally dishonest

I've seen 3 totally dishonest Dem ads repeatedly tonite. Every hour, same ads. Big media buy.

Mark T. Cenci
Offline
Last seen: 6 days 2 hours ago
Joined: 03/13/2000 - 1:01am
I think the belt tightening

I think the belt tightening will be on Democrat straight jackets

Toolsmith
Offline
Last seen: 2 hours 12 min ago
Joined: 07/14/2016 - 11:22am
PTSD before the event?
Tom C
Offline
Last seen: 33 min 7 sec ago
Joined: 01/03/2006 - 6:00pm
Ugh. My predictions were not

Ugh. My predictions were not very good. Well, congrats to the 'rats, but this is going to make the government worse.

anonymous_coward
Offline
Last seen: 8 hours 50 min ago
Joined: 10/21/2016 - 12:18pm
Statistically there were a

Statistically there were a few outliers but for the most part the results were in line with the polls.

Tom C
Offline
Last seen: 33 min 7 sec ago
Joined: 01/03/2006 - 6:00pm
I do find it interesting that

Yes, it was close to Nate Silver's average prediction. I think his prediction by race had the Dems with about seats 8 over majority, I don't know what the final count will be, but it will be close to that, maybe a few more when the close calls come in.

I do find it interesting that in Texas Bob O'Rourke raised about $70 million and lost with about 4 million votes. That's $17.50 a vote. Incredible.

So the lefties had 24/7 fawning news coverage, a boatload of money, and still lost there.

Thomas Carter
Offline
Last seen: 1 hour 11 min ago
Joined: 12/03/2012 - 3:03pm
I got several races all wrong

I got several races all wrong, but overall it was a good Election Day.

Golden/Poliquin is going down to the wire - what a nail biter. I was impressed with the voter turnout nationwide and impressed with the women elected to so many offices!

Toolsmith
Offline
Last seen: 2 hours 12 min ago
Joined: 07/14/2016 - 11:22am
It was very much like the

It was very much like the usual mid-term backslide away from the party in the WH.

Close to the final polls, but nothing at all like the hype a few months ago.

Not a blue wave at all...

Melvin Udall
Offline
Last seen: 25 min 4 sec ago
Joined: 05/01/2002 - 12:01am
Janet Mills: "I'm looking

Janet Mills: "I'm looking forward to bending the arc of the moral universe towards justice." (Or thereabouts....)

Translation: My highest three priorities are redistribution, higher taxes, and more welfare programs.

In other words, redistribution X 3.

expat
Offline
Last seen: 4 hours 28 min ago
Joined: 02/11/2014 - 5:39am
Trump's putrid base has

Trump's putrid base has shrunk. I call that a win.

johnw
Offline
Last seen: 3 hours 1 min ago
Joined: 03/11/2009 - 10:06am
Looks like the good people of

Looks like the good people of Maine will have the opportunity to see if Mills is a person of her word. Personally I think that even the liberals will be in pain when the full array of her tax increases and social agenda unfold. I'm sorry there was no upset for Anquish , but it was no surprise.I am a little surprised about the Poloquin /Golden price being so close.....

Toolsmith
Offline
Last seen: 2 hours 12 min ago
Joined: 07/14/2016 - 11:22am
What I really don't like is

What I really don't like is that the rankings are not reported.

At this point, we have no idea what the 2nd, 3rd & 4th choice stats for Bond or Hoar voters were... no info at all.

There are controls in place to protect votes... but what about 2nd/3rd/4th choices? Is it even illegal to diddle those numbers?

Those stats should have been counted & posted right along with the front page votes. If they'd done that, we'd know the results NOW. And there'd be no chance for any number nonsense behind the scenes.

Toolsmith
Offline
Last seen: 2 hours 12 min ago
Joined: 07/14/2016 - 11:22am
Hey, at least the Portland

Hey, at least the Portland carpetbagger didn't win...

http://www.sunjournal.com/tiffany-bond-a-regular-person-shunning-reality...

Bond doesn’t reside in the district she hopes to represent, though she said she wants to move with her husband and two boys out of Portland soon. One reason she’s waiting, Bond said, is that if she emerges on top on Election Day, she might want to buy a home in northern Maine because she won’t have to worry anymore about getting to legal proceedings across the state.

Why is this even allowed? At least the others live here...

Tom C
Offline
Last seen: 33 min 7 sec ago
Joined: 01/03/2006 - 6:00pm
Trump's putrid base has

Trump's putrid base has shrunk. I call that a win.

Well, not as much "shrinkage" as O'bammy had on his first midterm. Obummer lost the House, Senate AND majority of governorships.

Compared to that, Trump is livin' large.

Pages

Log in to post comments