Polls at the Maine Wire.
Vote Now! Maine Senate Race Poll
Olympia Snowe has shaken up the Maine political world by ending her reelection bid.
Who do you think should take her spot?
Our poll features many of the names being batted around behind the scenes, let us know what you think.
She won't do that. She'll have a ball in the lame duck session after November rubbing our noses in it and voting with Obama as she did with the Obamacare bill. Obama said yesterday he will miss OLympia. I sure hope not. I hope Obama will be gone in January.
We could always ask her to resign now, so the Governor can appoint a replacement. If enough Maine residents ask her to do so, she might consider the option.
Feb 29, 9:04 AM EST
Senator retirement causes Maine scramble
PORTLAND, Maine (AP) -- ...snip
Four Democrats... could be joined by ... Michaud and Chellie Pingree.. both... weighing a bid for the open seat.
.... Scott D'Amboise...says he's the presumptive (R) nominee because others have only until March 15 to collect 2,000 signatures ....
But others Republicans may jump in.... Kevin Raye, who's running for Maine's 2nd District congressional seat, said he'll consider a Senate bid.
http://bangordailynews.com/2012/02/29/politics/mike-michaud-enters-senat... Michauds in.
Updated: 2:26 AMAll of a sudden, Senate race is wide openHigh-profile members of both parties are expected to try to beat the March 15 deadline.
By John Richardson email@example.com
MaineToday Media State House Writer
and Susan M. Cover firstname.lastname@example.org
MaineToday Media State House Writer
"The ink hasn't dried off her announcement (to run)," said Josh Tardy..."On all sides, it blows (the race) wide open. The Democrats may take another focus on it and increase their field. It will create a frenzy on the Republican side."
Other Republicans... Charlie Summers and... Peter Cianchette.
Eliot Cutler ... also.. mentioned as a possible candidate.
BREAKING: Governor Considering Pushing Back Primary Filing Date
Posted on February 29, 2012 by Matthew Gagnon
....Governor LePage...talks ... about the possibility of pushing back the March 15th deadline for candidates to file for the primary.
....something that can be done, and the governor is seriously looking at it.
From what I’m told, the proposal would be a Governor’s bill submitted to the legislature, and would allow .... both parties to collect signatures to get on the ballot, perhaps to the end of March or early April.
With Micahud in I suspect this means there was some dealing done behind the scenes. The question remains...what was the deal? Does this all but guarantee Chellie will run against Sen. Collins in 2014 making way for her daughter to run for the CD1 seat? It would make sense if Hannah wasn't ready to run this year. That's my guess, Chellie is out of this race.
A valuable lesson for anyone running would be to understand that for all the number of people , who feel she didn't represent them, that number was exceeded by the number of people who did and voted for her in large numbers even discounting lessor of evil votes!
Learning why that was would be helpful.
Excellent news (about the Governor proposing a later primary date)!!!!!
I am emailing Governor LePage right now and telling him its a GREAT idea!
Please join me in doing so (unless you are voting for Michaud/Pingree).
Ryan McCabe- do you really think that Chellie is going to wait to take on Collins in a woman-vs-woman , north-vs- south race? At BEST her odds of defeating Collins, a well funded and popular incumbent would be 1:2. Collins has a HUGE edge in that off-presidential year race.
In this years' open seat race Chellie is already ahead by @ 20 points...and if the GOP doesn't move swiftly, may have NO viable opposition whatsoever.
Chellie will decide before this weekend and probably announce in time for the Sunday papers to be printed. I'll bet she is spending the day making money/advice phone calls ....including to the excited White House.
Pingree and Michaud are IN. If Raye stands pat in the 2nd, he will be running against Emily Cain - and wins. If Summers runs in the 1st, we win. Statewide? - I still think Abbott the smart pick, but Cianchette intrigues.
I see your point Ulsterman. Maybe you are right, we'll see. There are definitely scenarios that play into your theory. My assumptions were based on Hannah wanting CD1. If Hannah wants the Blaine house in 2014 then Dill will run for CD1 now and Chellie will run for Senate now. Oh by the way, Dill has taken out papers for CD1. I expect Strimling to take out papers soon and challenge Dill in CD1. If Chellie does decide to run for Senate then Gartley and Courtney will be announcing on the Republican side.
What is yet to be seen is who will run for US Senate on the R side. I suspect that Kevin Raye will stay put in CD2 race and win that without too much trouble. In the end this could end up being a wash and we just switch seats D and R. But, if someone prominent like Peter Ciancette runs for US Senate then we could end up net +1 or even taking all 3 seats to sweep. It is all going to depend on where the money goes. If Courtney gets the nod in CD1 and the path is cleared for him to the nomination then it means he could raise big dollars. Again, all dependent on the Senate candidate. Will they have enough of their own money or will they need more help? All up in the air at this point.
Baldacci is in!
So "we now may lose control of the Senate". Huh.
Please remember that on the most important, destructive piece of legislation from the last twenty years, Olympia Snowe (REPUBLICAN) provided cover for the bill's passage and then bemoaned the law afterwards............her performance was like something out of a nightmare.
"Lose" control of the Senate?? Huh??
John W: "Let's hope that more time is spent finding a suitable candidate that can win against whoever the D's field. Getting caught up in what Olympia did or didn't do will not serve Maine or the conservative agenda. The time to get moving forward is now..... Maybe Maine will garner some attention and funds from the party in an attempt not to lose another seat in the senate."
Please!.........allow us at least a few minutes to grieve the grievious damage this person has done. I mean, we were always supposed to just close our eyes, and not think about what she was doing WHILE she was doing it (pretend that it wasn't happening), and now that it's actually over we're STILL not allowed to pause and reflect on the truth?? Seems positively Soviet.
It's about the decisions we make in life. Let's spend a moment talking about the decisions that she (and we) made. If it's not too painful, that is.
Dear God- Maines' weakest and most deprecated Governor is running?
Who next- Angus King? Joe Brennan??
If Raye plays it safe (and I hope he does) I reckon he wins in HD2.
I will LOVE watching a Strimling/Dill/Hannah Pingree fight for HD1 (Hannah will win-she is very nice, charming, wears pearls, has gobs of money and is very pretty-which helps a LOT on t.v. and on the gold coast- ask Jim Longley). But to see Hinck-vs- Strimling-vs Dill...it would be like Trotsky -vs- Stalin in the Soviet Central Committee debates on the 1920s!
Think of the egos..... the sweeping rhetoric...the flashing white teeth....the LL Bean sweaters casually worn around the shoulders..... the calls for "change" and "helping those less fortunate"...the viscious attacks on "the privileged" and "Bush"! It'll be like a Tom Wolfe novel!
I am REALLY looking forward to the next "100days!"
p.s. Thanks Ryan!
Vic B. said: "
Sen. John Cronyn, head of the Republican Senate Campaign Committee, had interesting observations this morning on Laura Ingraham's national radio show. He went out of his way to be kind toward Snowe but there was an uncurrent in his tone that indicated they were irked by the timing of her announcement. RSCC had assumed she would be reelected and, by putting Maine into play, it throws the entire strategy of getting a GOP majority in the Senate into doubt, he said. He acknowledged that she didn't vote like a typical Republican. He said he respected that her Maine constituency is different from his Texas constituency so there would not be full concurrance on Republican issues. But he said, "Like Ronald Reagan, we said someone who is with us 70 percent of the time is our ally, rather than to say that if they're against us 30 percent of the time they're our enemy." Therefore, he concluded, she was important procedurely for the GOP numbers toward a majority and now she has thrown the entire Senate control strategy into chaos."
Ha ha, John Cornyn....joke's on you. Grow up. Or get your head out of your you-know-what.
No wonder we've done dreadfully in the Senate lately.
Kevin Raye should stay put in the 2nd CD race. He would have an easier go up there and would be the favorite.
Would love to see Peter Mills or Rick Bennett run for the Senate seat.
Ulsterman - I wouldn't underestimate Baldacci in this thing. In fact, that may be why we haven't heard anything from Chellie yet. Baldacci would have to be considered a very serious candidate.
Even if she did, let's look at CD1. Ethan? I just don't see it. Since limiting out of the State Legislature he's got a solid losing streak going. I have trouble believing Dill will be taken seriously in ANY of the races she's currently (or will be in the future) pursuing; the last 12 months have revealed her as the worst form of political opportunist, trying to bounce from seat to seat, and other D candidates will take care of that long before any R will have to. She might have a shot two years from now but not this year.
IF Chellie entered - which strikes me as less likely now that Baldacci's in - I concur that Hanna would likely be the one to watch, and the one to beat. Which will be tough, in that the 1st CD is reliably blue, the media would positively love a mother-daughter Congressional tag-teamand all of StepDaddy's money.
Thras (and others) said: "Maybe she should resign NOW so LePage can name a replacement."
That will never happen. She has always done ONLY what was best for her. To stay in and fight (and then maybe resign in the future), when it's about to get really messy for her? Nope.
To resign now, which would mean losing out on one more year in The Club (and what a club it is!)?? Nope.
Only what's best for Olympia.
With Baldacci in -and his strength in northern Maine and name recognition (even if it is somewhat negative)- if Chellie doesn't jump in NOW, she gets to wait another 18 years while Baldacci is in DC. She knows taking on Susan Collins is a death match. In this race NONE of us right-wing-activists can come up with a strong GOP candidate (money, expertise,name recognition) except Cianchette-and he is weak.Those odds are good odds for the Democratic candidate.
It is now or never for Chellie.
From the Senate.........................................to the White House?
A girl can dream.
Hey, Ulster, you'll get no argument from me on that score. Chellie has wanted the Senate for a long time. But she's a smart enough gal to read the tea leaves - she knows the primary battle in the 2nd CD will be tough. I'm not saying she won't get in - merely that Baldacci's entry changes the calculus.
While Baldacci doesn't have many fans here on AMG, let's remember that the people of Maine thought highly enough of him to give him 6 terms in the State Senate, 4 terms in the US House and two terms as Gub'nor.
He will be a formidable candidate for Snowe's seat, regardless of who else is in the hunt.
After eight years in the House, did anybody ever hear of the Baldacci Law? How about the Baldacchi Bill?
Pingree's decision to run has little to do with Baldacci. If the Dems match Pingree up against Michaud and vacate both house seats it becomes political suicide for them. Pingree is left as left comes and Michaud plays the "blue dog". Regardless of what Baldacci does, Pingree stays put. She may have taken out papers but that signifies to me that she is thinking about it, not doing it. If Pingree runs it plays right into the Republican hands.
Don't underestimate him, Roger.
And as if on cue, Chellie has taken out papers.
The Republican process will no doubt be gut wrenching and worrisome. But the Dem process should be hilarious.
eagle, that means very little, only that she is keeping her options open. If you were her political advisor would you recommend she run against Michaud?
Eagle- totally agree!
So folks here is where we are as of Day 1: 4pm-ish.
Michaud, Baldacci and Pingree are taking out papers to run for one of the 100 most powerful offices in the most powerful country on Earth. Each has strengths and weaknesses and their battle is for the primary in June.
All three know that in a presidential year Maine tips Democratic-even given the anger over the economy felt in some quarters-so they have a perceived edge in November. Right now they are calculating money, geography and strategy. These are $750,000 ++ statewide primaries and all three people can have or already have that kind of money. They are aiming at @ 175,000 specific voters and figure (as in 1994) once they get over the party primary, they cruise to victory in November.
Pingree's initial thoughts must be along the lines of Baldacci and Michaud split HD2 and take 10% of HD1 and she takes 65% of HD1 (more populated-her campaign is centered in greater Portland/Biddeford/Sanford and the Gold Coast communities) and fights like hell to gets 35% of HD2. She will visit Lewiston once a week every week going door-to-door starting St. Patricks' Day. There will be LOTS of ads targeting Democratic moms north of Gray in the coming months....and LOTs to teachers.
The GOP has 2 Congressional candidates in place. Raye is VERY strong in HD2. It KILLS me that Dean Scontras moved away. Kills me- because he deserved it and worked hard....and he could've won in HD1.
As I type, lesser Democratic political hopefuls- heads filled with ambition, ego and power-lust are calling their friends and weighing their chances. They know it is a primary battle and in each HD-all they need to win is @ 15-20,000 votes. Ideology and geography play heavy in these races. I expect these budgets to be @ $100K-$200K at most. Some will mortgage their house to run.
I expect @ 4-8 other candidates to file by the end of March.....IF LePage proposes the (now very popular) "Later Primary" bill.
Ryan- want to bet a $5 that Pingree runs and runs hard- like Secretariat ran? This is her one easy chance...the ring beckons...and honestly, do you really think she actually liked Baldacci all that much personally?
The big winners out of the next 100 days are Maines' media!
I hope that some of our GOP hopefuls advertise here!
Scott D'Amboise is on Fox Business right NOW!
I will stick with my assessment that she stays out of the race. She doesn't get to make this call on her own, there are others who help "decide" this with her. The DCCC weighs heavily on this and so does the DSCC. They are all telling her to stay put, I guarantee it. If she does run she will be on her own and they will back Michaud. She also will not win 65% of the vote in CD1, Michaud is popular down here too, aka the shipyard workers (BIW & PNSY). I won't bet you because I don't think we need to. Let's just keep it nice and friendly and you can tell me I was right when she doesn't run.
I belief Northern Maine has had enough of Baldacci from what my relatives have to say. Really what did he do for them for 8 years as Gov. ?
Baldacci's entry guarantees the primary - TO CHELLIE. Two 2nd district male candidates vs. female Gold Coast bazillionaire. Duh.
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