Both Pingree's are considering runs, from my sources..
eagle, that means very little, only that she is keeping her options open. If you were her political advisor would you recommend she run against Michaud?
If I were her political advisor, I'd recommend that she consider Botox.
Okay, that was a cheap shot, but I'm probably going to Hell anyway.
I think Michaud has the bigger challenge here, quite frankly. Once you dismiss the yappers like Dill, who will get drubbed in the primary, you're looking at a highly contentious race.
A Michaud-Pingree duel would be one thing - essentially, a test of strength between the 1st and 2nd CDs. But with Baldacci in the hunt, all bets are off. Sure, I'd advise her to make a run for it - Maine is a comparatively inexpensive state in which to run a campaign for national office, but that said both Michaud and Baldacci don't have Chellie's deep pockets.
Michaud is well respected in the 2nd CD but isn't very well known in the 1st. Whereas Baldacci is known statewide. I still think he's got the strongest hand, politically.
Gagnon was reporting earlier that the national Dems were really hoping that Michaud and Pingree would work it out between them and avoid facing off in a primary. That they apparently aren't doing so has to have them irked, and brings a glimmer of hope to yours truly (though I certainly agree that there's still time for one of them to drop out and the sprint required to make the current filing deadline requires both to hit ground running and figure out if it's the right move after all).
Could be wrong but I don't see either Pingree or Michaud being especially willing to take one for the team. Chellie's no spring chicken - as Ulsterman notes, this is her last and best hope. Meantime, perhaps Michaud could be persuaded that being a rep in an easy district is on balance a helluva lot better than working in a paper mill - and it might stick, but then again it's better to be a Senator than to be a Rep - to say nothing of the fact that he actually does face a credible challenge soon.
I will say that my first choice for the D nod, assuming the Rs put forward the right candidate, would probably be Pingree. Second choice would be Michaud. Others will almost certainly disagree, but I think we'd have the toughest time defeating Baldacci.
When it was Baldacci's turn to run for gov, Pingree had to run for Senate.
Now that Pingree wants the Senate, Baldacci is running!
Yeah. I'm all verklempt about it. ;->
HA! Mainemom! You are right...like I said...I think there is respect, but not deep abiding friendship there.
Eagle, I think Baldacci has a name recognition edge, BUT he was not popualr and has few "allies" they way Michaud, Chellie and even Cutler do. he splits the HD2 with Michaud (who has a french name and that counts).
The way i see it: as of today of 100 Democrats I would bet that
22-25% would vote Baldacci (great name recognition)
25% would vote Chellie (5% are female preference voters)
7-10% vote Cutler (he steals from Chellie-almost all in HD1)
20% vote Michaud-with only 2-3% of his votes coming from HD1
HD2 has a lot more older voters and they show up, but this is balanced out by a lot of activists-who also show up (and live in HD1.
Ryan- I'll bet you:
2. A signed Chellie Pingree photograph
or 3. A signed Olympia photograph!
...or to make it really interesting...a six pack of your choice of Maine brewed beer! (Seadog IPA for me)
Michaud is NOT popular down in HD1; he is almost unknown. His name recognition is @ 20% at best. Chellies' is @ 90%+. He also suffers from a "class" issue. Driving a forklift truck is seen as "good" but all those non-profit/government workers from Massachusetts who live in places like Kennebunk and Falmouth prefer Chellie.
This is what killed Dutremble.
Why would you consider changing the March 15th deadline, so all the social democrats have a chance to get 2000 signatures?
What are you just interested in the political theater of it?
That's a hell of a poll by Maine Wire, D'Amboise isn't even on it.
Republicans deserve to eat their own
Not so crazy. Wargamed this today, a doubled up moderate ticket would pull huge from the Dems, particularly with a woman on the ticket that has a pro-choice record. Leaves the right wing nothing to do and nowhere to go, but suck it up and vote the party ticket.
Pingree is not going to stand on the sidelines and cede the nomination to Baldi or Michaud. She has no love for either: Baldi and his cronys pushed her out of running for Gov (opposing him in a primary) back in 2002 while Michaud supported Adam Cote in the Dem primary for Congress that she won. She now has money and, like her or not, she is smarter and more articulate than either of them or in combination. In fact, she has a better shot in a primary with both Baldi and Michaud in the race, even though either one of them probably has a better shot than her in the general.
Anywhoo, why all the talk of Dems? WTF are the R's doing?
Is the Gov really going to try to extend the filing deadline? That legislation would need 2/3 vote for immediate passage and the Dems will smell weakness on the R's part if they introduce the bill. The Dems will not help that effort, it will not get 2/3 passage and they will focus on getting signatures. The R's need to get their act together pretty quick or similarly open the floodgates for candidates. If I am Steve Abbott and I want to run, I would not bow down to Charlie Webster telling me it is Cianchette's turn, for example. Raye should stay with the 2nd CD race-his to lose.
Meanwhile, the guy with the highest favorables, Angus King, will announce shortly.
Fascinating discussion and speculation. One question:
What qualifies someone as a political "analyst" versus and observer or junkie?
Prediction for what it's worth (=zero):
Michaud will not run if either Pingree or Baldacci does.
Between Baldacci and Pingree, neither will step aside for the other if both truly want it.
Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee will intervene on behalf of one or the other.
Michaud is making a mistake if he runs for US Senate. He can enjoy the perks of the House as a back-bencher with very little attention to what he does or does not do and his limitations.
The Club of a Hundred, on the other hand, works in a bright spotlight. He would be way over-his-head and quite vulnerable for his weaknesses to be exposed. For Mike, I should think it better to hide in the multitudes of the House, come home for ribbon cuttings and nobody is the wiser.
Remember the DC insider magazine that listed him as a prime member of the Obscure Caucus? It said on Capitol Hill he was so anonymous that there was a delay in getting his name under his image if he popped up on C-Span. He won't be allowed such anonymity in the Senate.
So, my betting money says he plays it safe and runs for reelection in the 2nd CD.
Jim Cyr ...I'm not making light of the damage olympia has done especially her vote on obamacare..... My point is that we do not have time to waste.... Think of the horrible possibilities of pingree or michaud in the senate...emily cain talking about running for michaud's seat in the congress..... hannah pingree running for mommy's seat............egads.......!!! The worst thing we can do is emulate the national scene where the candidates are tearing each other a new one...... Cooler heads need to prevail pick a candidate and make sure they have as much support as we can muster whether they are everyone's ideal or not.......
Channel 2 says Gov. LePage is NOT going to try to push the primary date back.
It just hit me: soon I will never again have to hear "you know, (blah blah blah).........you know, (blah blah blah).......you know" emanating from Snowe!!
What a great thought!!
"Michaud is making a mistake if he runs for US Senate. He can enjoy the perks of the House as a back-bencher with very little attention to what he does or does not do and his limitations.
The Club of a Hundred, on the other hand, works in a bright spotlight. He would be way over-his-head and quite vulnerable for his weaknesses to be exposed. For Mike, I should think it better to hide in the multitudes of the House, come home for ribbon cuttings and nobody is the wiser. "
On the other hand, he would make John Kerry look accomplished.
Snowe's abrupt retirement showed it was time for her to retire; honorably, we hope. If her main intent was to send a political message, I think I partially agree with it, but that was no Declaration of Conscience.
If Angus King, or even Eliot Cutler, decides to run as an Independent, the seat will be taken by a de facto Democrat. We should hope for a head-to-head with Pingree and a candidate who will bring libertarians into the fold while keeping centrists.
Actually, pushing the signature date back works to the advantage of both parties, if Channel 2 is incorrect. If he actually did try to push it back it would be the first piece of legislation he advanced that would have bipartisan support.
As to what makes an analyst: A platform. Print or broadcast, or a website with readers who follow for the POV. Everything else is brain droppings.
As to what are the Republicans doing - Ruth Summers was an actuality on WGAN this evening (obviously pretaped) saying that signature gatherers will be out in force this weekend. It'll happen, of course. Short term, it's more fun (and less scary) handicapping the D column, which NEVER anticipated this day and which is falling all over itself to grab the brass ring. The long knives are out.
Pity about Ruth. I like Charlie - he's a great guy. But when it comes to sheer political skill, organizational skil and street smarts, Charlie doesn't hold a candle to her. Although she's well known within party circles, I wish she was better known in this state, because she'd make a TERRIFIC senator. And a very formidable candidate.
As to Angus and Cutler: Angus is certainly an intriguing aspect to this; First Wind has suffered setbacks and he may be looking for a noble bailout. First Wind also makes him vulnerable to the right campaign - thought it'd be tough. If Angus enters, I've gotta believe Michaud will count his blessings and bow out. Angus WOULD be a game changer - the question is whether he gets in (and if he does, there's plenty of material for the R candidate to work with. I can't see Cutler getting into the fray - he'd be happier in the Senate than the house, but he's more the executive type and would probably prefer to be governor.
Yesterday, my anger at Olympia was getting the better of me. Don't like her, but given that I live in a liberal state have figured that she was a better choice than the offered alternatives, mostly. Stick to that position. Will say at this point, as a political junkie, that I'm over my pique and looking forward to the scrap.
Or, as Elvis (Costello, not Presley) put it: I used to be disgusted. But now I'm just amused.
As much as we all want to prognosticate about what's going to happen the fact is that we don't know "jack." What I do know is that this is going to be great political theater! Pass the popcorn!
According to Politics1.com
Michaud is in, Baldacci is in, Pingree is in I don't see any of them backing away from a primary, it bears remembering that Michaud was not expected to win the Democratic primary in 2002 and he should not be taken lightly. Other analysis is probably correct but I think Michaud is in the same category that Snowe was in in that I don't think he's never lost a campaign.
Cynthia Dill (D) and Jon Hinck (D) have already taken out papers to switch to the CD-1 Race, although Dill's website says she's still weighing options, Hinck is definately in. Also David Lamoine (D) and Mark Gartley (R?) are in, as is Jon Courntey (R), two others got in also: David Costa (D), Wellington Lyons (D)
In CD-2 Bruce Bryant (D) is also in, Dunlap seems to be staying in the Senate race for now but CD-2 being open would be a logical move although he may be waiting to see just how crowded the field gets in the Dem Senate Primary - he also may already have his signatures and figures there is a chance someone won't get enough to qualify.
Plowman is in for the seat Michaud is vacating (that makes me think Raye is probably in for the Senate race).
Since the "Independents" have more time I wouldn't be surprised if they decide to wait a week or so to see how things shake out but that's just speculation.
Finally, this would also seem to shake up all of the Maine House and Senate races in the case of Cain, Plowman...
Pingree is not going to stand on the sidelines and cede the nomination to Baldi or Michaud.
Agreed. Sussman isn't going to drive a Chevy when he can have a Cadillac.
Ulsterman: Well, since I do not know who you are it is tough for me to form an opinion on whether you are even the list bit connected enough to be the "know all" on what Chellie will do. Again, I don't want to bet. I will be happy enough to just be right about this one. I have done some entry level political analysis and I aspire to be a professional advisor someday so I look at this as an opportunity to practice. I stand by my analysis and we shall see what happens. If I am right you can simply acknowledge it and if you are right I will do the same for you. Is that enough for you? Oh yeah, Karl Rove is my hero!
He's the only person in Maine Politics that makes Mike Michaud look like a genius.
Now, that's funny, Bruce Bryant is no mensa and nice Elvis reference eagleisland. McKane, the upgrade to Cadillac? Not sure Chellie fits that description, Rosa might and Mitt's wife owns a couple of caddys, Sussman should have test drove a few more before settling even though he ain't exactly Geo Clooney.
If Baldacci wants back "in," he should pony up first for the $400M hospital bills he left behind, and the $10 billion we owe the state pension funds over the next decade.
He should answer for the mess at the DHHS, MTA, and MSHA before he ever goes back to DC in any capacity.
Anyone who votes for that guy again has a fiscal death wish.
Naran, where is the like button??
Whoever runs against him should get together doctors that were put out of business by Baldacci's hospital $$ reimbursement fiasco... put them on an ad, something. I know some of these docs... We cannot AFFORD someone like him (AND Obama) in D.C. The doctors will be working for free by the time they're done in D.C.
Thank you, Bazinga. If those medical providers want to do their fellow Mainers a serious favor, they need to write letters to their local papers, and tell the truth about the financial morass left behind by Baldacci & Co.
It was bad enough, what he and his pals did in Maine, let alone turning them loose on Capitol Hill.
Eagleisland "If I were her political advisor, I'd recommend that she consider Botox."
The raceway at Daytona was smoother than that, even after the fire.
Michaud, Pingree and Baldacci may seek Olympia Snowe’s seat; King, Raye and Cutler also considering
By Eric Russell, BDN Staff
Posted Feb. 29, 2012, at 11:24 a.m.
AUGUSTA, Maine —....snip
.... Kevin Raye... and Charlie Summers.... are considered the leading GOP candidates.
Raye said late Wednesday afternoon that he had not made up his mind....
“I’m getting all kinds of advice,” he said ...There are a lot of discussions happening and I know a number of people are interested in running for the 2nd District should I move over. The situation is certainly very fluid.”
Naran said: "If Baldacci wants back "in," he should pony up first for the $400M hospital bills he left behind, and the $10 billion we owe the state pension funds over the next decade."
The hospital bills were deliberate, used to force hospital consolidation under the Big Three tertiary care hospitals in Maine as suggested by the Commission to Study Maine Hospitals back in 2004 (thank you, Bill Haggett). Baldacci and his Dirigo Healthcare staff very deliberately destroyed independent community hospitals all over Maine in the name of centralized "efficiency."
Angus King is talking a good game for Senate, but the guy is going to be 68 years old on March 31. He'd be a two-term Senator at best, and Maine's strength has always been seniority. Frankly I think he engaged his ego before putting his brain in gear on this one. But consider a King-Cutler face off -- Dennis Bailey would have a field day!
Its the wonderful world of political musical chairs. Hoping some of these people are left standing without a seat when the music stops...and all they are left with at the end is the sound of their own ego ringing in their ears.