Errors in GOP Straw Poll Could Give Paul Win

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LarryinAugusta
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Joined: 05/25/2007 - 6:53pm
Errors in GOP Straw Poll Could Give Paul Win

"TO: Kennebec GOP e-mail list

Attached are the results from Kennebec.

For those who received the press release sent by Mike Quatrano last night, there is an error. Two municipalities are listed with zeros when, in fact, they submitted their numbers. One is Waterville.

XXXXXX was responsible for keeping the spreadsheet. I can tell you, because I saw it, that she had the Waterville numbers. The spreadsheet was copied from her master to a laptop. Somehow, in that process, the numbers changed.

As Charlie Webster stated last night, the official numbers will be placed on the MRP website tomorrow. They will be using XXXXXXX spreadsheet, not the numbers sent in the press release. "

Looking at both list below is the error rate and if these errors hold true throughout the State Paul will win the straw poll by six votes. Paul would have 2289 to Romneys 2283. How does this sort of thing happen? 15% of Ron Paul votes were not counted.....

Wrong GOP Totals 118 143 62 21 0 346
Right Kennebec County Totals 123 164 62 24 8 381
Missing Totals 5 19 0 3 8 35
Error Percent 1.042372881 1.146853147 1 1.142857143 0 1.101156069
GOP Released State Totals 2190 1996 989 349 61 5585
Possible Right Totals 2283 2289 989 399 61 6150

LarryinAugusta
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Joined: 05/25/2007 - 6:53pm
These are the numbers from

These are the numbers from the GOP website cleaned up. You will notice a 2 vote error. This is in the GOP spreadsheet which does not balance?

Municipality Romney Paul Santorum Gingrich Other Total
Albion 0 7 2 0 0 9 9
Augusta 18 17 3 0 0 40 38
Belgrade 4 3 7 1 0 15 15
Benton 5 2 1 1 0 9 9
Chelsea 3 2 5 1 0 11 11
China 6 11 1 0 0 18 18
Farmingdale 4 3 3 0 0 10 10
Fayette 3 3 0 0 0 6 6
Gardiner 4 3 1 1 0 9 9
Hallowell 9 9 4 0 0 22 22
Litchfield 4 6 9 0 0 19 19
Manchester 2 4 2 1 0 9 9
Monmouth 11 11 4 0 0 26 26
Mount Vernon 0 8 0 0 0 8 8
Oakland 13 12 2 4 0 31 31
Pittston 3 4 3 1 0 11 11
Randolph 0 2 1 1 0 4 4
Readfield 0 4 0 1 0 5 5
Sidney 7 4 3 5 0 19 19
Vassalboro 3 1 2 0 0 6 6
West Gardiner 2 3 1 1 0 7 7
Windsor 0 0 3 1 0 4 4
Winslow 8 10 2 1 0 21 21
Winthrop 9 14 3 1 0 27 27
Totals 118 143 62 21 0 346 344

The two other in Augusta are wrong on the list above. That is why the check is off.

Dan Billings
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Joined: 10/02/2005 - 12:01am
I saw this on

I saw this on Facebook:

Steven Scharf
The state party press release has the wrong numbers for Portland. Mitt Romney won with 106 votes to Ron Paul's 91 votes. The Press Herald is now incorrectly reporting that Ron Paul won Portland.

LarryinAugusta
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Joined: 05/25/2007 - 6:53pm
The portland numbers are

The portland numbers are right in the press release. There is a difference between the press releasing bad numbers and the GOP doing it. Maybe the press numbers are right? To be clear there is some confusion on the numbers and some human error involved. Charlie should issue a new press release stating "There were some counting errors which make this strawpoll was to close to call, because of this we have a tie. We are sorry we did not get this right and will do better next time."

Dan your post above makes things look worse. How do we know that the media is not right and the numbers are posted wrong. Does Paul get another 20+ votes here?

Dan Billings
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Joined: 10/02/2005 - 12:01am
There are no numbers that

There are no numbers that suggest it is a tie. Make any corrections necessary and release the correct numbers.

The party release has numbers that say Paul won Portland. Steven was there and says that is not the case.

LarryinAugusta
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Joined: 05/25/2007 - 6:53pm
Besides Portland, Waterville

Besides Portland, Waterville have you heard of any other errors? According to the spreadsheet the party release today the numbers for portland are what steven says, the waterville numbers are not correct. Why correct Romney wins but not Paul Wins? I'm just getting confused now?

***sorry I read the number wrong the official GOP results have Ron Paul winning Portland.***

Dan Billings
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Joined: 10/02/2005 - 12:01am
No. The Sagadahoc numbers

No. The Sagadahoc numbers are correct. I was involved in the counting last Saturday and the reported numbers are correct.

LarryinAugusta
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Joined: 05/25/2007 - 6:53pm
If Steven is right then the

If Steven is right then the GOP numbers are wrong for Portland as well. 91 Romney, 106 Paul.......two major cities wrong, how many more out there are wrong.....With less than 200 votes between them in the official results and only 85% reporting this seems to be a mess.

Portland
91
106
22
4
0
223

Waterville
0
0
0
0
0
0

LarryinAugusta
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Joined: 05/25/2007 - 6:53pm
As of 3 PM Sunday...Numbers

As of 3 PM Sunday...Numbers still wrong on GOP web site.

mainemom
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Joined: 03/09/2004 - 1:01am
if these errors hold true

if these errors hold true throughout the State

There is no basis for such an assumption in fact or in logic.

Dan Billings
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Joined: 10/02/2005 - 12:01am
Random errors are likely to

Random errors are likely to go both ways and make no change in the outcome.

LarryinAugusta
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Joined: 05/25/2007 - 6:53pm
There is a 100% chance of

There is a 100% chance of errors in Kennebec County. There were reporting errors in at least two towns.

According to a State Committee Member there was also errors in reporting Portland.

It is unreasonable to say that all the errors will just cancel out and we would get accurate results. I would expect that these errors would be acknowledged by the party and a new press release with accurate information will be released. I took the time to vote in the straw poll, the party should take the time and present honest, accurate data.

I mean we are concerned about a few college kids voting but it is ok for our party to screw up results like this.

Dan Billings
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Joined: 10/02/2005 - 12:01am
I agree a revised release

I agree a revised release should go out. It is also Sunday.

Vic Berardelli
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Joined: 12/26/2001 - 1:01am
This fiasco shows that either

This fiasco shows that either a) the State Committee was manipulating proactively to help Romney get his national news for the Sunday papers*; or, b) there is vast incompetence in the state party office.

Either way, this is disgusting and puts the entire GOP in a bad light.

* I was told by someone at a southern Maine caucus that a Romney operative was was maneuvering to get the straw poll done earlier so that his people could leave for other things. My informant said he told him that is counter-productive because the state convention delegate selection is the key to getting national convention delegation. According to my informant, the Romney operative told him, "That can be worked on later but after last week with Santorum, we need a poll win for a national momentum bump in the Sunday papers." I believe it because another contact who was at CPAC said in the three days he was there it was all Santorum or Paul people and about 30 minutes before the straw poll opened busloads of young Romney supporters walked in, registered and got straw poll ballots even though they never participated in CPAC. So today the national news reports "big win" for Romney at CPAC and Maine and the corrections will not be noted or buried where nobody sees it.

LarryinAugusta
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Joined: 05/25/2007 - 6:53pm
Part of my irritation comes

Part of my irritation comes from the fact that I have repeatedly told people that they can trust party officials and then something else like this happens.

Naran
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Joined: 10/06/2004 - 12:01am
And posting all these details

And posting all these details on the open forum is helping matters, or building "trust"?

Dan Billings
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Joined: 10/02/2005 - 12:01am
What is exactly the fiasco

What is exactly the fiasco here?

The mistakes that I have noted are:

1. The Portland numbers possibly being reversed.
2. Waterville being left out of the total.

What else?

The Washington County event was cancelled locally. The Ron Paul people don't like that, all along, the straw poll ended yesteday. Those are things the unsuccessful campaign is focusing on to undermine the results.

Vic Berardelli
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Joined: 12/26/2001 - 1:01am
Dan: I have yet to see an

Dan: I have yet to see an answer to my question of a) why was there no one day statewide caucus date like the Democrats and b) how were town chairs notified that the poll would be announced Feb. 11 and they should schedule caucus accordingly? I am told by some town chairs that they never received any advance warning and that the first they heard of the Feb. 11 poll announcement is when I called them after the January state committee meeting when I first heard of it.

Dan Billings
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Joined: 10/02/2005 - 12:01am
a. The Party rules adopted

a. The Party rules adopted by the last convention do not call for a one day vote. The State Party can't change the rules, only the convention can.
b. The caucus kit that I got as a Town Chair said the straw poll results would be announced at the Regency.

Spider
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Joined: 06/16/2011 - 3:13pm
Vic and Larry....STAY on

Vic and Larry....STAY on this. If the mistakes are honest, self correction will occur. If the numbers were manipulated.....that needs to be exposed, and extinguished. As a newly recruited republican I am getting a very uncomfortable feeling of being used. I know, I know....its only a straw poll. Message is, just dont give me a reason to distrust the party leadership. Best this is sorted out well before November to assure an energized republican effort, rather than an effort that has 'trust cracks' in it.

LarryinAugusta
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Joined: 05/25/2007 - 6:53pm
I believe in transparancy.

I believe in transparancy. The Augusta numbers were also not accurate. Look at the totals the numbers do not add up. How many others are wrong? To have honest government people have to speak out when they see inconsistencies. Do I think it was intentional, no. Do I think it was sloppy, yes. Do I think it would have been looked at closer if Paul was up, yes.

J. McKane
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Joined: 05/22/2005 - 12:01am
And posting all these details

And posting all these details on the open forum is helping matters, or building "trust"?

Sometimes dirty laundry is best dried indoors.

Vic Berardelli
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Joined: 12/26/2001 - 1:01am
Yeah, Dan, the caucus kits

Yeah, Dan, the caucus kits were handed out at the January 14,2012 state committee meeting well after most towns scheduled their caucus. Therefore, the state party manipulated the announcement (why and for whose benefit?) and it is not the fault of the towns; contrary to Charlie Webster's disingenious claim to media Saturday that those towns which scheduled later caucuses opted to not participate. So it is a state fiasco and no town should be blamed for trying to be counted fairly. Like Larry, I stuck my neck out and told people they could trust the state committee but it looks uglier by the hour and I feel duped into trusting the people and process.

Dan Billings
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Joined: 10/02/2005 - 12:01am
Having the announcement on

Having the announcement on February 11th was decided last fall. There probably should have been a press release on it at that time. It is also the job of State Committee members to share information with local leaders. We set the date for our caucuses in Sagadahoc County based on the February 11th date. It appears most did the same.

I will note that I voted against asking towns not to announce their straw poll results because I believed it was not transparent and would feed into conspiracy theories. I was in a small minority on the State Committee on that vote.

I am sorry to have been proven correct.

Vic Berardelli
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Joined: 12/26/2001 - 1:01am
I'm open-minded to state

I'm open-minded to state officials trying to make amends to me but they better have big lips because I have a big, fat Italian rear-end!

Melvin Udall
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Joined: 05/01/2002 - 12:01am
Regardless of how this all

Regardless of how this all works out, at least you can rest assured that statewide elections are scrupulously accurate and honest.

None of these possible anomalies could ever occur in ACTUAL elections.

Dan Billings
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Joined: 10/02/2005 - 12:01am
These kind of mistakes happen

These kind of mistakes happen in every election. But most elections are decided by a large enough margin that it doesn't matter.

If there is ever a statewide election decided by a couple hundred votes, it will be a complete fiasco.

Government does little well. Why would elections be any different?

Traci G
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Joined: 10/16/2007 - 6:27pm
The first I head of the

The first I head of the announcement date was at the Dec. State Committee meeting when we were asked to try to get towns to caucus between the 4th and the 11th. I did report that back to my county committee.

When the original decision to have a one day announcement for the caucus was made was not something state committee ever voted on to my recollection. I have only ever missed one state committee meeting and that was due to weather.

If that decision was made last fall I wish I would of been told then so I could of been preparing some of the smaller towns in Penobscot.

Peter
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Joined: 03/13/2005 - 1:01am
This idea has been discussed

This idea has been discussed since last fall..It was before Halloween when I first heard of it..If I was still active, I would've been against it also.

LarryinAugusta
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Joined: 05/25/2007 - 6:53pm
Dan, It is not a conspiracy

Dan,

It is not a conspiracy theory if it is true. I never said it was intentional just sloppy and with this margin of error it should have been called a tie.

CaJo
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Joined: 04/16/2010 - 9:53pm
Dan Billings, we expect our

Dan Billings, we expect our votes to count in the straw poll. It said nothing about a deadline in the caucus kit with the directions and number for the straw poll, and I would hope the Maine
GOP would reconsider its decision. Not only did most of Washington County not be able to participate, but 10 towns in Hancock County, where I live and am town chair.

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