Errors in GOP Straw Poll Could Give Paul Win

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Dan Billings
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Joined: 10/02/2005 - 12:01am
Fix the mistakes and announce

Fix the mistakes and announce the correct numbers.

Those calling for a tie have other interests than seeing that things are done correctly.

I have won a couple of elections by less than 50 votes and lost one by 12 votes. None of them were called a tie.

LarryinAugusta
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Joined: 05/25/2007 - 6:53pm
Those calling for a tie do

Those calling for a tie do not have faith in the systems to do the job right. The Causus started over a week ago and even if the party got its act together an verified everything I have little faith in the results. I would also guess that you did not have the same issues in your election that this straw poll has. The party did not count 15% of Ron Paul's votes in Kennebec County.

Dan Billings
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Joined: 10/02/2005 - 12:01am
So if it turns out that

So if it turns out that enough reported votes were left out of the total so that Paul actually won, you would rather have the straw poll called a tie than Paul declared the victor?

LarryinAugusta
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Joined: 05/25/2007 - 6:53pm
Unless it is an overwhelming

Unless it is an overwhelming majority I do not think you can call it for one over the other. If we had accurate data then I would say make a call but I think the margin for error is pretty high here.

Saying that as a Paul supporter I would like that. I also think that if that was the case the party should say I'm sorry to Paul and his supporters.

Dan Billings
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Joined: 10/02/2005 - 12:01am
That is always the case with

That is always the case with a straw poll run by volunteers in a few hundred different municipalities.

Mainelion
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Joined: 08/11/2005 - 12:01am
If you're sure that the

If you're sure that the errors will cancel themselves out then why bother counting the votes. Just use a random number generator and the errors will cancel themselves out.

LarryinAugusta
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Joined: 05/25/2007 - 6:53pm
If this was the case Dan then

If this was the case Dan then why call it for Mitt with so few votes between him and Paul.

Melvin Udall
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Joined: 05/01/2002 - 12:01am
Time to hand everyone a

Time to hand everyone a trophy saying 'you are a winner,' in keeping with contemporary mores.

The score doesn't count, and nobody should go home with hard feelings.

You show up, you come in first.

LarryinAugusta
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Joined: 05/25/2007 - 6:53pm
Ron Paul’s campaign is

Ron Paul’s campaign is claiming that it could still win the presidential preference poll in the Maine caucus because of a county that postponed its vote and will hold its caucus next Saturday, Feb. 18.

On Saturday, the Maine Republican Party declared Mitt Romney the winner of the presidential preference vote, which he led by 194 ballots based on the caucuses that have been held so far.

State Republicans said they considered the results of the straw poll final. However, Washington County, in the easternmost part of the state, postponed its caucus after a snowstorm was forecast there. The Washington County G.O.P. Chair, Chris Gardner, said his county would conduct the straw poll at its caucuses and will report the results to the state.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/02/12/could-ron-paul-still...

Roger Ek
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Joined: 11/18/2002 - 1:01am
Those Northern Maine towns

Those Northern Maine towns that normally caucus in March will do so. Their results will be announced and recorded. Like Iowa, it may take a little longer than planned to know the outcome. It turns out that Santorum won Iowa by eight votes and as Dan so correctly points out, victory can occur by small margins.

Aaron Prill
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Joined: 06/11/2010 - 9:53am
Just looking at results on

Just looking at results on mainegop.com and my town Winterport shows up as all zeroes, as well. I was at the caucus and there was only 18 of us but our results were:
Santorum- 7, Romney- 7, Paul- 2, Newt- 2. I've just emailed my town manager to find out if he knows why were weren't included.

Also, I see many other Waldo County towns with zeros that I know where at the county super caucus on February 4th in Belfast (including the town of Belfast), so it seems discrepancies could swing for either candidate... not just Paul. I agree this whole straw poll seems flakey now especially considering towns like mine didn't even get included when we caucused a full week BEFORE the announcement.

Aaron Prill
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Joined: 06/11/2010 - 9:53am
UPDATE: I have been in touch

UPDATE: I have been in touch with Raymond- the Waldo County GOP chair... It turns out all of the towns that attended the Waldo County super caucus in Belfast on Feb 4th were NOT counted in the State Party totals. He submitted them in one lump sum instead of town-by-town, so the State party left them off the totals reported this past Saturday.

HOWEVER, upon getting the vote breakdown from Ray, this only accounted for 129 votes... and it resulted in only a 9 vote gain for Ron Paul as Santorum was also strong. Here is the 129 vote breakdown: Romney-31, Paul-40, Santorum-39, Gingrich-18, Other-1 (Total=129)

Given the fact that Washington County is also very conservative, I'm willing to bet that Santorum will also garner a lot of support down there, so the swing for Ron Paul will not be as dramatic as people think downeast.

LarryinAugusta
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Joined: 05/25/2007 - 6:53pm
I thought that the bad

I thought that the bad results were going to be corrected today? It seems like Paul keeps picking up votes. I would think that the party would release corrected numbers as soon as possible.

LarryinAugusta
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Joined: 05/25/2007 - 6:53pm
9 PM Monday and the hey its

9 PM Monday and the hey its Sunday excuse does not work. Still no correction,.

Making a mistake is one thing. Not owning up to it and making a correction is another. This does make the party look bad because of the actions of the party and not the people talking about it.

Also, kinda wierd that the Waldo County totals would not be counted when they were submitted a week early. If there were concern about the breakdown you would think that someone would have called.

Dan Billings
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Joined: 10/02/2005 - 12:01am
It is unfortunate a

It is unfortunate a correction was not released today.

charlie neville
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Joined: 10/17/2005 - 6:31am
Could that be because those

Could that be because those doing the "correcting" don't like how it now reads?

charlie

Betsy Ross
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Joined: 10/19/2011 - 4:35pm
This is so much fun to

This is so much fun to watch!

The same conversation could be heard 4 years ago. The only difference is that in 2008, Ron Paul supporters accused the Maine Republican Party of denying Paul 2nd place by withholding votes. Paul finished a distant 3rd and McCain beat him for 2nd place by 174 votes.

While the 2008 results on Wiki are reported as 100%, it was actually 98% because 9 out of 347 towns either failed to caucus or failed to report on the single-day caucus.

We should go back and resolve that straw poll because the end result will be the same as resolving this year's straw poll -- someone other than Ron Paul will be the Republican nominee for president.

LarryinAugusta
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Joined: 05/25/2007 - 6:53pm
I am surprised and saddened

I am surprised and saddened by the dismissive nature of some on this board. Pull the candidates out of it and just look at what is happening. We are now up to significant errors in at least four counties involving multiple towns. The email I received Sunday morning stated that the error with the Kennebec County numbers happened presumably at GOP headquarters and were caused by a GOP staff member. If something happened to these numbers it happened on the State Committee level. Every report I hear from the Maine GOP is that the towns and counties are to blame and this is just not truth. I want to be clear, I know a lot of the people involved with this and like them and I find it hard to believe that any fraud happened. I believe that Charlie Webster has done a great service to the State of Maine and his “Working People Vote Republican” brand is brilliant.

Saying all that I am starting to have doubts that this is an honest mistake. I see three reasons why the Maine GOP is not releasing the corrected numbers. The first is that they just don't care about the integrity of the system and are afraid to admit a mistake. The second is that they no longer have the original tallies from the towns, I find this hard to believe and would be disappointed if this was the case. The third reason is that the numbers were manipulated and no one knows how to correct them without it coming out.

Charlie needs to get ahead of this ASAP, admit an honest mistake and release the corrected numbers that the GOP messed up. This will not cool down until he does this and can not wait until the March State Committee meeting. If nothing is done I see a Ron Paul Rally at the State House during session cheering “President Paul Won” and marching on to GOP headquarters demanding an explanation on what happened.

The Republican Party should be a champion of open government and accountability. We demand it of others and we should demand it of ourselves.

Betsy Ross
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Joined: 10/19/2011 - 4:35pm
Look out! Here come the

Look out!

Here come the conspiracy theories!

Same crap. Different election.

LarryinAugusta
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Joined: 05/25/2007 - 6:53pm
“Look out! Here comes the

“Look out! Here comes the conspiracy theory!

Same crap. Different election.”

If there was not an attempt to defraud the voter in the straw poll then admit a mistake, publish the corrected numbers and lets move on. This is not a conspiracy theory. I believe in being honest and transparent. I would assume that most here would as well and trying to deflect the conversation with the statement above is just silly.

I would have hoped that the Maine GOP would have learned from its mistakes of the 2008 election. I am still mad about the unannounced Mccain speach.

Betsy Ross
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Joined: 10/19/2011 - 4:35pm
Of course you're still mad!

Of course you're still mad!

McCain had enough national delegates to win the GOP nomination on 3/4/2008 and the Maine GOP Convention was on 5/2 and 5/3/2008. He had no business addressing Maine Republicans at their convention!

I would have hoped that the Ron Paul crowd would have learned from their mistakes in 2008. Instead, they've intensified their rude, disruptive, and paranoid behavior virtually everywhere they go.

It's okay, though. It doesn't advance their cause.

Jim Corr
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Joined: 05/25/2007 - 4:04pm
"The Republican Party should

"The Republican Party should be a champion of open government and accountability. We demand it of others and we should demand it of ourselves."

You're absolutely right Larry! This whole process has been one giant "screw-up." There is certainly enough annecdotal evidence to suggest this may have been intentional. The Chairman needs to fix it! This is not an issue about Paul supporters being disenfranchised, it is an issue about the integrity of the democratic voting process.

LarryinAugusta
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Joined: 05/25/2007 - 6:53pm
My understanding of how the

My understanding of how the convention works is that people via to be delegates to represent the candidate they support. McCain did not win Maine and had not accumulated any Maine delegates at the start of the 2008 Maine GOP Convention. At the start of the convention the Maine GOP played an unscheduled video from McCain and did not offer the same opportunity for Ron Paul. This was a slap in the face to all Ron Paul supporters. Time and time again I hear that Paul people are rude but it has been my experience that non tolerant people going for the establishment candidates are the rude ones.

We are not a bunch of lemmings who should just automatically do what other states do.

FYI, Betsy Ross did not make the first American flag. Her grandson made the story up .........this just proves that you cant believe everything.

LarryinAugusta
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Joined: 05/25/2007 - 6:53pm
Banor Daily News Story -
Traci G
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Joined: 10/16/2007 - 6:27pm
I hope the Maine GOP decides

I hope the Maine GOP decides to just keep tallying the votes from all the caucuses even if another national press release doesnt get attention~ I have had people calling me who were Paul LePage supporters (who support all different candidates for presidential nominee) and they are saying this is reminding them of the delegate list being released to Abbott before the last convention.
Hard to convince people that our Maine GOP is not the good ole boys club when there is an outward appearance that it is whether its true or not~ thats going to be the perception.

LarryinAugusta
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Joined: 05/25/2007 - 6:53pm
I just hope they fix there

I just hope they fix there screwups..........Fix the mistakes that the Maine GOP made and not hide behind incompetence.

LarryinAugusta
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Joined: 05/25/2007 - 6:53pm
KJ Story Waterville's caucus

KJ Story

Waterville's caucus results, for example, were reported but not counted in the state's total. Paul beat Romney 21-5 in Waterville, according to numbers provided Tuesday by the Kennebec County Republican Committee.

There also were a few cases of incorrect numbers being entered into the official breakdown, Webster said.
.....
Webster would not release corrected totals on Tuesday. He said he does not want to issue new numbers until the state committee meets to discuss the issue March 10.

http://www.kjonline.com/news/questions-swirl-around-maines-gop-caucus_20...

LarryinAugusta
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Joined: 05/25/2007 - 6:53pm
I cannot believe that the

I cannot believe that the numbers that the Maine GOP changed either through error or intent are not going to be fixed. The problem here is not the errors but the insistence on not fixing them. Be accountable and correct the fraud. That is what it is if you knowingly submit or retain bad numbers in an election. If this straw poll meant nothing then why did the Maine GOP have a big numbers release party?

Dan do you still believe that Charlie is making a mistake by not releasing the numbers?

Dan Billings
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Joined: 10/02/2005 - 12:01am
Yes. All the numbers that

Yes. All the numbers that were reported before the deadline should be corrected and included in the count and released.

The later caucuses is a different issue.

Spider
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Joined: 06/16/2011 - 3:13pm
Larry in Augusta

Larry in Augusta says:
"Waterville's caucus results, for example, were reported but not counted in the state's total. Paul beat Romney 21-5 in Waterville, according to numbers provided Tuesday by the Kennebec County Republican Committee."
This Republican wants a complete explanation for how that occurred. Otherwise I will end up with the 'perception' that: A. It is possible there is some corruption in the party that is willing to re-arrange election results.... we dont want that perception to become contagious. B. Party officials dont really care about the results of this caucus polling stuff which will cause me to wonder why I gave up a day to attend and participate and get out the vote.....and that could lead to future low voter turnout, resulting in loss of seats such as occurred in the special election in district 20. Fix this.

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