GOP Gov Primary- is the field set?

Yes.

The field is:

LePage
Poliquin
Otten
Jacobson
Mills

Your missing Martin Vachon form your list.

Steven Scharf
SCSMedia@aol.com

He won't be on the ballot.

At this point, my hunch tells me it is really between Lepage and Jacobson.
Thoughts?

Never underestimate Peter Mills in a crowded primary.

I agree, Mike. I think the crowded primary helps Peter.

You can't ignore Poliquin. Anybody who can raise the money, rookie or not, he has is automatically in play. I believe he's socially moderate to liberal which can either help or hurt in the primary depending on the dynamics of the race.

Mills appeals to the middle, and he'll use that to sell himself as the most electable candidate for the general.

LePage can be the dark horse if he can develop a good grass roots network in the next few months.

Otten has name id, but can he sell himself to the base? He also appeals to moderates, but I think he'll lose his votes to Mills who also has name id and is an experienced politician/campaigner. I see his campaign going down in flames faster than Dave Emery's.

I don't know much about Jacobson but I think his potential voter base is going to be taken by Poliquin (voters who want a fiscal conservative but social moderate who has the resources to to wage a competitive campaign in the fall) and LePage (fiscal conservatives/social conservatives who want a salt of the earth candidate whose background makes him appealing to Mainers in the general)

To sum this up I think it will come down to Mills, Lepage & Poliquin with LePage and Poliquin competing to be the fiscally conservative alternative to Mills.

MMan, did Poliquin raise money? or just put up his own money? how do you know he's a social moderate?

I'm guessing there will be another announcement and a drop out. Has Otten even officially filed yet?

Mills likely only needs the same number of votes he got last time to win.

I know quite a few he will not get.

On this, Rep. McKane and I agree.

Every race is different. To assume that anyone begins a race with a base of the people who voted for them the last time around ignores history -- particurlarly when the field is larger and much different.

If Mills was capable of listening to people who know something about campaigns, I might give him an edge. But he is incapable of taking anyone's advice on anything so he will continue to make stupid political moves.

I just can't get enough of people describing Peter Mills as stupid.

I feel like a little kid. Say it again. Again. Again.

Otten undermines Mills, not the other way around. And he's not Dave Emery, because he's got real money. In 2006, Emery + $$ = Governor, he just couldn't get the middle of that equation. Otten is very electable in Nov, and would be a major figure nationally as a Jewish Republican leader. Anybody know if he maintains a religious affiliation?

Poliquin is so relentlessly programmed that it is nearly impossible to tell who he really is. Clues: he contributed to both Jack Kemp and Pete DuPont in 1988. Both outstanding picks. But it is hard to imagine a newcomer to the political scene taming Augusta.

LePage has a great story but no campaign in place. A blue collar self made Franco associated with a Maine institution like Marden's would fit very well with Charlie Webster's message: Working People Vote Republican. If Tardy enters, it will be awfully tough for Paul.

Jacobson needs more money (who doesn't?) and would run very well in a general election. Pragmatic business executive/Air Force pilot, interesting economic ideas. Attractive adopted children, wife a physician, southern Maine base. Hard to imagine anyone voting for a hack like Rowe over Matt. Still, 7 years in the state won't help, although he was military, and voters may understand those guys don't get to pick where they live.

Mills has really reached out to the Left (appearing at the Obama health care rally, attending the Marxist economic seminar, etc) and it's hard to tell how many committed liberals remain in the GOP in Maine. If it's still 20%, he's got a shot in a 6 or 7 way primary.

Other major players will almost certainly enter the fray. Shades of 1994! Let's hope there's no Angus King waiting in the wings....

The field is not set.

Emrich for Governor!

As to LePage and his lack of a campaign structure, it's only been a week since he announced. I'd say give him at least a little time to see what he puts together. The candidates can't even start collecting signatures until Jan 1.

We could check Poliquin's reports to see how much he's given his own campaign, but he does have a network of businessmen friends who have been helping him raise some serious money.

UPDATE

I had a chance to go on mainecampaignfinance.com and out of $276,939.50 in reported contributions Poliquin has donated $124,474.92. By some of the smaller amounts that show up as gifts my suspicion has he has donated big chunks of cash to his campaign and then is also paying some expenses out of pocket. (Which he is legally reporting.)

You could look at from the perspective that hehas financed 45% of his campaign, but you could also look at the $152,464.58 he raised from others a year before the primary which is still pretty impressive.

Jacobson had raised less than $40,000. Otten, who I think was just getting started has raised $7756, of which $6200 was donated by Otten himself and his wife.

I speculated on an earlier thread that Michael Heath may have resigned from the Christian Civic League because he's thinking about running for governor. If he does run, do you think he'd run as a Republican or as an independent?

Emrich for Governor!

I don't think the field is set yet. I bet we will see at least 1 if not 2 more jump into the primary. The next financial report will be very telling about candidates who have been in the race for a few months. If a candidate does not have a good showing they will begin to slide off the radar. If a candidate can not get people to support their campaign financially then they will have a hard time convincing the voters. There are 3 similiar candidates in the race (Otten, Poliquin and Jacobson) touting the business community support as a base - there simply is not enough room for all 3. At least 1 if not 2 will start to see support erode if they can not raise the money.

Michael Heath has as much chance of being elected governor as Jonathan Carter.

I agree with your assessment of a Heath candidacy, Mr. Lange. However, Michael Heath probably does have the contacts/network in place to collect the necessary donations to qualify for Clean Election money. Is his ego/drive big enough to make a run just to spread his "gospel"?

I only speculate because he recently resigned from CCL and Mr. Emrich made the comment that the Republican field wasn't set yet and I'm thinking Mr. Emrich might have some inside information of a potential Heath candidacy. I don't know Mr. Heath personally and really don't have any opinion of him. I certainly don't know his politics other then to assume that they would be similar to most fundamentalist Christian politicians.

I agree with Dan- Emrich for Governor

Bill Becker is managing Jacobsons campaign.

"If Mills was capable of listening to people who know something about campaigns, I might give him an edge. But he is incapable of taking anyone's advice on anything so he will continue to make stupid political moves."

So your biggest problem with Mills is that he doesn't take your advice? I'm not sure how you would know whose advice he does or doesn't take.

I never offered him any advice. I do know people who were experienced in campaigns who supported him in 2006 and whose advice he consistently ignored.

and I know people whose advice he listened to. So what?

If Mills was hard to work with he wouldn't have gotten every legislator to vote for the Fund of Funds. It's a complex bill (suggested by Tech Maine, who he clearly listened to.) The only reason our state has failed to take advantage of this opportunity to attract mid-level capital is Baldacci.

If you're ever driving down 95 and see Peter Mills' campaign truck you'll see what's wrong with his campaign: Peter Mills is driving the truck.

He's headstrong and won't let others take charge of things that he should let go of.

MMan, he has five drivers enlisted so far. I volunteer on the campaign. He most definitely does not micro-manage.

I have a lot of concern about the fact that Bruce Poliquin was on the board of the Natural Resources Council of Maine. I found this on his website:

"I’ve served on the boards of a number of non-profit organizations.One is the Natural Resources Council of Maine, the largest environmental advocate in the State. "

I don't trust anyone to be a real republican who hangs around that crowd.

I don't think Michael Heath will be running for governor. I think he may be led to do something completely different.

I tend to agree with Bob Emrich that the field is not set, at this point with what appears to be a pretty hotly contested off year November election in Maine, any other candidates may decide to wait until after that is over when the political news cycle slows before announcing.

I'm also not sure the Democratic primary field is set either - anyone know if Mike Michaud has committed one way or the other? If he got in it could make things interesting.

". . .the fact that Bruce Poliquin was on the board of the Natural Resources Council of Maine. I found this on his website: - "I’ve served on the boards of a number of non-profit organizations. One is the Natural Resources Council of Maine, the largest environmental advocate in the State. "

Huge alarm bells!!!! He knows what these groups are all about. Bu-Bye!