AP/WSJ GOP Nomination Delegate Tracker found inaccurate

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Vic Berardelli
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Joined: 12/26/2001 - 1:01am
AP/WSJ GOP Nomination Delegate Tracker found inaccurate

AP is tracking estimated delegates on the first ballot at the GOP National Convention in August. The threshhold for nomination is a minimum 1,444 delegate votes.
AP discloses that this is not scientific. In caucus states it estimates delegates by preferential poll results and in uncommitted states it has interviewed elected delegates, while acknowledging that some have declined to answer. AP estimates that Maine, based on that methodology, would send 12 delegates Romney, 10 Paul, 2 Huntsman.

So, flaws and all, here is the running delegate tracker:

As of Feb. 21:
Romney 123 (8.5% of total needed for nomination)
Santorum 72 (4.9% of total needed for nomination)
Gingrich 32 (2.2% of total needed for nomination)
Paul 19 (1.3% of total needed for nomination)
Huntsman 2 (0.1% of total needed for nomination)

Primaries and caucuses to come and number of delegates:

Feb. 28: Michigan 30 Arizona 29
March 3: Washington 43
March 6: Georgia 76, Ohio 66, Tennessee 58, Virginia 49, Oklahoma 43, Massachusetts 41, Idaho 32, North Dakota 28, Alaska 27, Vermont 17
March 17: Missouri 52
March 20: Illinois 69
March 24: Louisiana 46
April 3: Texas 155, Wisconsin 42, Maryland 37, District of Columbia 19
April 24: New York 95, Pennsylvania 72, Connecticut 28, Rhode Island 19, Delaware 17
May 8: North Carolina 55, Indiana 46, Nevada 31
May 15: Nebraska 35, Oregon 28
May 22: Kentucky 45, Arkansas 36
June 5: California 172, New Jersey 50, South Dakota 28, Montana 25, New Mexico 23
Also American Samoa, Guam, Northern Marianas, US Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico have a combined 23 delegates

On-going tracking at:
http://projects.wsj.com/campaign2012/delegates

Vic Berardelli
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Texas proportions delegates

Texas proportions delegates so it would take a super-human effort to win 100% of the primary vote in order to get all 155 delegates.
That would make the April 24 primaries, with 231 delegates at stake, and June 5, with 298 delegates, the key dates to watch.

If no candidate wakes up on June 6 with a minimum 1,444 delegate votes then it is certain there will be a brokered convention. The RNC rules only bind delegates to vote for the candidate whom they represent on the first ballot; so if a candidate cannot swing enough uncommitted on the first ballot it is an open contest once delegates are free to change allegiances.

Naran
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Joined: 10/06/2004 - 12:01am
Vic - thank you kindly for

Vic - thank you kindly for this thread, and the work involved to make it happen. I appreciate your efforts.

Apollo
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Joined: 08/19/2004 - 12:01am
Vic, I know what the networks

Vic, I know what the networks have been saying about Maine's delegates and how they will be allocated, but the state convention will really determine that. If Ron Paul delegates control the state convention by a good majority, they could win almost all of the delegates. You're not going to see a relatively easy split between Romney, Paul, Santorum. Most of the delegates will go to either Romney or Paul.

Vic Berardelli
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Joined: 12/26/2001 - 1:01am
Apollo: I am only the

Apollo: I am only the messenger, those are not my judgement. I merely passed on the best available delegate tracker I could find, which also happens to be the one the networks and national newspapers are using. So long as we have this convoluted, inconclusive caucus system we have to make do with whatever guestimates are out there.

Apollo
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Joined: 08/19/2004 - 12:01am
Maine's two National

Maine's two National Committee people are automatic National Convention delegates, and so is the State Chairman, and I believe the Governor is as well. The 17 remaining delegates are elected at the State Convention. All 17 could easily be elected for one candidate, if that candidate's delegates show up in force.

Roger Ek
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Joined: 11/18/2002 - 1:01am
The national convention

The national convention should be a three ring circus. There will be many principled delegates who will meet their obligations to their candidates. Then there will be delegates who never intended to support their delegates. They bamboozle state convention delegates into believing they will support the candidate the state seems to be leaning toward, but instead vote for the progressive candidate. Then there are people who are simply unprincipled gadflies who enjoy being in the limelight. We have seen all this before.

Don't believe the stories and promises that you only have to vote for your candidate on the first ballot. Hold fast to your principles. Don't vote for progressives; not on the first ballot; not on the second day; not ever. Come home with your head held high.

Vic Berardelli
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Joined: 12/26/2001 - 1:01am
Keep in mind that several

Keep in mind that several states, including Maine, technically send "uncommitted" delegates who are allegedly not bound to a candidate.

Watcher
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Joined: 03/23/2008 - 12:32pm
Is this thread really

Is this thread really necessary. It is all conjecture, based on unknown future results of caucuses and primaries and the totally uncommitted votes.

Roger Ek
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Joined: 11/18/2002 - 1:01am
There are "super delegates"

There are "super delegates" who attend conventions and may not announce their preference for a candidate. These are office holders beholding to nobody.

Virgil Kane
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Joined: 12/15/2005 - 12:44pm
Ron Paul quietly amassing an

Ron Paul quietly amassing an army of delegates while GOP frontrunners spar

Paul's tightly-organised campaign is racking up delegates even in states where he did poorly in the popular vote. It's all part of a complex system that could make Paul the election kingmaker

theguardian

Apollo
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Joined: 08/19/2004 - 12:01am
Roger, you are correct. I

Roger, you are correct. I believe that Maine has 4 automatic delegates - the National Committee Man, Woman, the party chairman (Charlie), and I also think the Governor gets an automatic spot. The rest are elected at the State Convention.

Vic Berardelli
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Joined: 12/26/2001 - 1:01am
Update of delegate count

Update of delegate count won't be available until tomorrow. Michigan is an apportioned delegation, so the final percentages there will matter. Arizona is a winner-take-all.

Vic Berardelli
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Romney picked up 29 delegates

Romney picked up 29 delegates in Arizona.

Michigan has 60 convention delegates apportioned this way: 30 delegates apportioned by the percentage of statewide vote in the primary; 28 delegates for the 14 Congressional Districts with two delegates to the winner in each CD and two super delegates who can go uncommitted.

Vic Berardelli
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Michigan still uncertain.

Michigan still uncertain. With 34% of precincts reporting at 10 p.m. EST Tuesday, the result is Romney 41%, Santorum 38%, Paul 12%, Gingrich 6%.

Vic Berardelli
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As of 7 a.m. EST Feb. 29,

As of 7 a.m. EST Feb. 29, delegate estimate is (needed to win nomination: 1,444 delegates):

Romney 163
Santorum 83

Gingrich 32

Paul 19

Huntsman 2

Next up: Saturday, March 3, Washington State caucuses - 43 delegates
(I will be in the Portland, Oregon area this weekend and have been invited to look-in on how Washington caucus works if I can slip across the river into Vancouver, WA. It would be interesting to compare to how Maine ran its caucuses.)

Vic Berardelli
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It will take a while to learn

It will take a while to learn the apportionment of the Michigan congressional district delegates. But using the popular vote percentage to allocate the 30 statewide delegates, Michigan appears to have 13 delegates Romney, 11 delegates Santorum, 4 delegates Paul and two delegates Gingrich.

Vic Berardelli
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Detroit Free Press

Detroit Free Press interactive map indicates Santorum won six congressional districts, Romney won five. The others are too close to call: 1st CD Santorum 39.7%-Romney 38.9%, 3rd CD Santorum 41%-Romney 40%, 5th CD Romney 39.1%-Santorum 39%.

If those numbers hold, Santorum picks up 16 delegates to Romney's 12 for the 28 delegates apportioned to the congressional district winners.

Interesting that Romney's only strength was the Detroit-area CD's. Santorum carried the Upper Penninsula, central and western Michigan and even one of the Detroit CD's which has a tiny corner of the city and mostly blue collar suburbs.

Naran
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Joined: 10/06/2004 - 12:01am
Vic, thank you for the

Vic, thank you for the continued details and input on this thread.

Vic Berardelli
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Joined: 12/26/2001 - 1:01am
The major reason to follow

The major reason to follow the rolling delegate count is to prove that despite the media hype of alleged winners and losers, accumulating delegates is far more complex than popular vote. And, it's a long way to get those 1,444 delegates. As the calendar pages turn, if someone doesn't pull very close to that figure we get closer to a brokered convention starting Aug. 27 in Tampa.

Apollo
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Joined: 08/19/2004 - 12:01am
Was on news, Romney Santorum

Was on news, Romney Santorum split Michigan, 15 delegates each. Paul gets 0.

Vic Berardelli
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As of 12:01 am March 4: (Need

As of 12:01 am March 4:

(Need to nominate 1,144):

Romney 203
Santorum 92
Gingrich 33
Paul 25
Huntsman 2

COMING UP TUESDAY MARCH 6 TOTAL 437 DELEGATES:
Georgia (76)
Ohio (66)
Tennessee (58)
Virginia (49)
Oklahoma (43)
Massachusetts (41)
Idaho (32)
North Dakota (28)
Arkansas (27)
Vermont (17)

Mark12345
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Joined: 02/18/2012 - 12:01pm
AZ (29) and MI (30) are of

AZ (29) and MI (30) are of course "bound delegates" which will likely be big for Romney, assuming things continue to go the way they have. AZ, SC (25) and FL (50) were all "winner take all" and "bound", and MI was bound and proportional.

However (I think someone said this already but bears repeating), its important to note that "bound" only means essentially (my understanding) that those delgates are bound to that particular candidate (in AZ's case, all Romney, in MI's case, 1/2 ea for Romney and Santorum) for the 1st round of voting at the National convention in Tampa.

After that, all bets are off.

Further, there are many unbound, for example IA (28), CO (36), MN (40), WY (29) and ME (24).

Three ring circus with Popcorn for all, indeed!

Vic, for what its worth, the current "tally" according to Wikipedia is:

Romney 118
Santorum 65
Gingrich 45
Paul 41

Not sure why or how its different, but who knows with all the factors going into this....comments/corrections welcome, of course.

Vic Berardelli
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Joined: 12/26/2001 - 1:01am
I explained the Associated

I explained the Associated Press methodology in the first post above. There are other delegate trackers but they do not go into the same detail and, to my knowledge, AP is the only one which actually calls Super Delegates and uncommitteds to interview them for an idea of where they lean.

It is an imprecise science but it gives a general guide and the delegate count guestimates are far more accurate than public opinion polls. Also, it emphasizes that it ain't over 'til it's over! Nobody is anywhere near 1,444 delegates which is why I believe we might be headed toward a brokered convention.

Mark12345
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Joined: 02/18/2012 - 12:01pm
Vic, cool thanks. I was

Vic, cool thanks. I was unaware of them actually interviewing the supers. Its going to be a cluster all right, but hopefully a fun cluster!

Vic Berardelli
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Joined: 12/26/2001 - 1:01am
Romney people are putting

Romney people are putting fascinating spin today on national media which Santorum disputes.

The Romney line is that if he carries Super Tuesday, he's locked up the nomination. That is mathematically impossible. There are 333 delegates today. Even if they were entirely winner-takes-all, Romney would wake up tomorrow with 451 delegates, still less than half the total needed to win the nomination.

The next big one after today is April 3 but Texas proportions and is not winner-takes-all for its 155 delegates. After that, California's 172 delegates loom big on June 5.

But mathematically, the numbers don't crunch for 1,444 going into the convention on Aug. 27 at Tampa. A brokered convention scenario becomes more realistic unless Santorum and Gingrich drop out and release their delegates to Romney, which is highly unlikely.

Vic Berardelli
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Joined: 12/26/2001 - 1:01am
As of 10:15 p.m. on Super

As of 10:15 p.m. on Super Tuesday, Romney picked up at least 90 delegates during the evening, Gingrich 39 and Santorum 34 and Paul at least 6 delegates. Full update of delegate count tomorrow morning when all have counted.

Current running total of all delegates accumulated to date since Iowa and New Hampshire kicked off the process:

Romney 293
Santorum 196
Gingrich 72
Paul 31
Huntsmann 2
(Will update tomorrow after all the final results are tabulated the late results from Alaska come in.)

But it is obvious that despite Romney's spin, he is nowhere near approaching 1,444 delegates needed for nomination. Day-by-day, a brokered convention looms.

Vic Berardelli
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Joined: 12/26/2001 - 1:01am
NEEDED TO WIN NOMINATION:

NEEDED TO WIN NOMINATION: 1,144 DELEGATES
As of 6:45am EDT Wednesday, March 7, 2012

ROMNEY 415

SANTORUM 176

GINGRICH 105

PAUL 47

HUNTSMANN 2

Estimates based on the Wall Street Journal/Associated Press methodology explained in Post # 1.

Mr. Magoo
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Joined: 12/16/2008 - 12:27pm
Vic: How do the super

Vic:

How do the super delegates factor into this? Are they additional to the ones voted in during the primaries and cacuses? If they are outside the system I would think they were more establishment oriented and would support Romney. Are there enough of them to push him over the top without a brokered convention?

Vic Berardelli
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Joined: 12/26/2001 - 1:01am
Magoo: Somewhere at the top

Magoo: Somewhere at the top of this thread I reprinted the explanation that the Wall Street Journal/Associated Press gave on how they accumulate this delegate tracker. AP actually calls the Super Delegates for an interview to get an idea of where they lean. They admit that it is unscientific and there is some guestimating. I don't calculate, I merely pass on. As I told someone else in a post above, there are several delegate trackers but I find this the best because they do reach out to the Super Delegates and uncommitteds to try to ascertain leanings. The link to the source is in Post # 1.

Jim Cyr
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Joined: 06/27/2005 - 12:01am
How any one can support

How any one can support Santorum is absolutely beyond me.
Lost by 16 as an incumbent SENATOR.
Major reason why Specter (one of the worst politicians ever) beat Toomey (a great politician).
Oh, and he's in bed with the unions. The unions!

I want to call him a loser since that's what he is. But I just have to find a non-labelling way to do it.

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