Greater Depression Looming?

......"Today's drug riddled underclass would as soon stab you in the back as look at you as evidenced by this week's articles in the BDN"......

That is exactly the kind of people I have been talking about. They have no intention of working, they have very anti-social personalities and have no employable skills.

I am curious just what kinds of jobs people think these folks would be able to do.

We kind of make fun of "fllipping burgers" at Mickey D's. But even though the company has done everything possible to make the job simple, even for those who cannot speak english, it is still a very fast paced environment that one needs certain skills for. I know many people who would not have a prayer of being able to work there. Just one example.

WC

I am curious just what kinds of jobs people think these folks would be able to do.

Potato pickers
Bluberry rakers
Lettuce pickers
Apple pickers
Municipal refuse sorters
Housekeeping services
The list goes on and on.

An answer to two of the most important problems facing this country today.
Welfare entitlees will take care of the illegal immigrant problem if their entitlements are withdrawn.

WC
I think it would amaze you how quickly some of these socially inept folks would be easier to get along with if they, alone, were responsible for their own sustenance.
And it would be truly amazing to see how fast they started gaining enough intelligence to get ahead and rise above these menial jobs.

IAC -

I apologize if I sounded dismissive of your comment that inflation might erode the value of welfare transfers. My point is that (1) an inflation great enough to shrink real welfare payments is a far greater problem than just welfare payments and (2) inflation is one of many possibilities - some more likely than others - that might be included in this discussion. Although it's possible, I just don't see the risk of inflation as especially relevant.

When the checks stop, or the beans become too expensive, they will quickly, if reluctantly, decide to be employable.

I agree with you. Apparently, many of the commenters in this thread believe that the U.S. is populated with a large and dangerous class of sociopaths, who have no intention of working, they have very anti-social personalities and have no employable skills. Presumably, when the entitlement state shrinks, these are the rioters and looters who will be the cause of CHAOS.

Personally, I find this notion to be fantastic.

....."Personally, I find this notion to be fantastic"......

I guess we will just have to agree to disagree as I find it unbelievable, the notion that all of these anti-social sub culture members will cheerfully go to work, in order to eat.

I know many of them, who would rather steal than work...... and they do that already. The local police chief says they commit 80% of the local crime now! The notion that these folks will suddenly see the light, and give up their current lifestyle to go on a job raking blueberries or whatever I think is fantastic.

Time will tell us as calamity is coming our way in my book.

WC

So the French urban underclass, reeling from the financial collapse of the government in 1789, could have simply gone out and got jobs and quietly resumed the interrupted economic expansion? Who knew!

In Economike's defense, Eric Hoffer points out in the True Believer that the only folks who figure out the horrors to come on the cusp of revolution are the disturbed and marginalized intellectuals.

But of course we don't have any "disturbed and marginalized intellectuals." here on AMG:-)

Thrasybulus -

Drollery aside, I'm skeptical of a couple of themes that have emerged in this thread.

The entitlement crisis means a reduction in government transfers to the middle class. This crisis can be resolved without a wholesale rearrangement of other government priorities. Looming depression? Probably not.

If the entitlement crisis is resolved successfully, the U. S. economy will once again expand and employment opportunities in the private sector will abound.

The losers in the struggle over entitlement spending are members of SEIU, AFSCME, and the NEA. These are not the underclass that lives on TANF and food stamps.

Maybe a failure to resolve the entitlement crisis will result in an economic stagnation that squeezes a welfare-dependent underclass. Or maybe not.

If that economic stagnation happens, maybe the welfare-dependent underclass will be found to be a criminal and/or unemployable antisocial underclass that will cause political turmoil and chaos. Or maybe not.

A "welfare" underclass is not necessarily an "unemployable" underclass. Terms like "criminal" "unemployable" "antisocial" have been tossed indiscriminately around as if to suggest that vast hordes of aggrieved malcontents are going to take their pitchforks to the barricades in support of SEIU. I'm skeptical.

A "welfare" underclass is not necessarily an "unemployable" underclass. Terms like "criminal" "unemployable" "antisocial" have been tossed indiscriminately around as if to suggest that vast hordes of aggrieved malcontents are going to take their pitchforks to the barricades in support of SEIU. I'm skeptical.

When you take into account the number of second and more generations of the entitlement "underclass" that has no idea how to support itself, theft, for many, will be the first order of business.

They may not be aware of who they owe their undying gratitude to for the easy life they have had so far, but, yes, they will produce unwavering support for SEIU and all the other individuals and organizations that profit from keeping them on the dole.

When you take into account the number of second and more generations of the entitlement "underclass" that has no idea how to support itself, theft, for many, will be the first order of business.

ugenetoo -

Good point. What is the number?

Being neither economist nor statician, I can't answer that with any firm number.

Being rather observant, though, I see them all around me every day.

... I see them all around me every day.

Indeed. I first became aware of the generational welfare family scenario in the early 80's and the young woman I talked with about this was very open. Her goal was to have a child, get on welfare and thereby get her own trailer and thus live in the lifestyle to which she and her mother had become accustomed.

Color me a pessimist but I see troubles ahead too. Definitely...be prepared!

Well I surely hope that Economike is right in his assessment of what kind of problems another great depression might create.

But I have a long practice of preparing for the worst scenario I can imagine happening, just in case it does. Much better to be prepared for the worst than just to hope for the best.

If Economike turns out to be wrong, he is going to have lots of company, including some of my family, and lots of other folks, who have Alfred E Neuwman's philosophy: "What, Me worry?"

WC

Economike states: The entitlement crisis means a reduction in government transfers to the middle class. This crisis can be resolved without a wholesale rearrangement of other government priorities.

Please consider that you are overlooking the fact that ruling elites (and that is the middle class in America) NEVER peacefully release their grasp on the throat of the polity. Their actions are catabolic - societies on the way down cannibalize their own infrastructure to prop up their lifestyle. The first thing cut in times of economic contraction (and never in times of expansion) are social services. A virile society can repress the underclass by force, a less robust society pays them tribute. When Rome diverted resources to the center to maintain the living standards of the empire, bribes to the tribes were suspended, and barbarian incursions burst forth and overran the Western Empire.

A more modern example is when the Shah suspended payments to the Mullahs in 1977. Yes, the budget came back into balance, but the primitive religious underclass revolted.

Who pays the lowest effective tax rate in the US? The middle class. Who receives the greatest welfare state benefits per capita? The middle class.The middle class will sell every bit of seed corn to keep their ample buttocks resting on the heated seats of their SUVs. The problem in the US is not the underclass, but the middle class - the folks who voted to bribe the underclass in the first place.

When you write: The entitlement crisis means a reduction in government transfers to the middle class. This crisis can be resolved without a wholesale rearrangement of other government priorities, you are correct. However, it cannot be done by electoral processes. That strongly implies that a period of turbulence will precede a monarchical solution to the crisis.

Thrasybulus -

My limited point in joining this discussion was to say that the period of turbulence in our future is not necessarily going to be a depression. Considered as a fiscal problem, the "entitlement crisis" could be averted by a return to the level of federal expenditure prevalent a dozen or so years ago; this is not a revolutionary rearrangement destined to collapse the economy.

Of course, "fiscal" is not the same as "political." I agree with you that the "entitlement crisis" - and the consequent inevitability of the end of the broker/client New Deal state - makes regime change inevitable. If its elite broker class - politicians, crony capitalists, labor unionists, the media and academia - succeed in holding onto power, the result will not so much resemble Depression-era America as declining modern France, with its glittering capital - an elite playground - uneasily surrounded by idle, disordered, thug-infested banlieues.

We agree that the problem is not the underclass, but the middle class. Regarding the underclass, the welfare system and the penal system are functional and relatively cheap, the underclass docile and nonpolitical. If there's a criminal class in this country, it's not within the underclass - it's from the political class.

Regarding the middle class, as I have written, today's political faultline lies between the producers in the private sector and the rent-seekers in the public sector. This is the identity crisis of the middle class - whether to embrace risk, production, and profit or to seek security in illusory government promises. As the political stakes come into focus, my intuition - wishful, perhaps - is that the U.S. middle class will reject the drab, constrained, regulated entitlement state and will create its own destiny. Yes, the middle class was drawn into the entitlement state when it seemed "free" but now that the deadweight cost of the welfare state becomes due, the middle class balks at the bill. For what little it's worth, this is my guess. I suspect that the Average Family is willing to trade a reduction in Social Security promises for ownership of a heftier 401(k).

If there's a criminal class in this country, it's not within the underclass - it's from the political class. Super nice hit!!!! Wish it would fit on a bumper sticker:-)

Considered as a fiscal problem, the "entitlement crisis" could be averted by a return to the level of federal expenditure prevalent a dozen or so years ago; I don't think a lot of people realize, as key insiders pointed out, that Reagan's entire focus was to restore the status quo ante of 1970. If Ronnie gave it his all and couldn't pull it off (he got HAMMERED trying to cut a quarter point off future social security entitlements), I don't see Mittens coming anywhere close. I think our best bet is to hold our breath and wait for a Jindall type.

I think we'd be better off going back to the federal spending level of the Coolidge Administration. That should be the long-term goal of the Tea Party, Libertarians and Republicans.

......"I think we'd be better off going back to the federal spending level of the Coolidge Administration. That should be the long-term goal of the Tea Party, Libertarians and Republicans"........

I think this is pretty much what is going to happen, as a part of a major looming "do=over" for America.

What is being overlooked here a bit is the massive "underculture" that is the direct creation of the welfare state.....since Roosevelt in 1934.......and probably even longer than tnat!

America was founded upon the ideology of "liberty", the freedom to live life as we desired....as long as we did no harm to anyone else. Unspoken, but critical, to the sucess of that ideology.....is the ability to be responsible for oneself.....personal responsibility!

Way too many Americans today, have transformed that ideology into one that gives them the "right" to have whatever they feel they want, or need, regardless. They have totally accepted the idea that government is supposed to "take care of people", an idea so far from that idea that became America, that it might as well be on another planet.

This vast subculture is working hard to destroy the American culture, and is greatly succeeding. The Dover PD chief told my wife and I that criminal activity is at an all time high.......totally out of control of law enforcement, and getting worse. Our subculture, the creation fot he welfare state, is directly responsible for most crime, the end result of abdication of any thought of "responsibility for themselves".

In my opinion, the upcoming upheaval will result in the loss of many of these folks, in numerous ways. Gun ownership in the USA increased by 10% last year alone! I know a whole lot of people who "carry" and most people I know are armed in their homes. There is an expectation that this vast "subculture" will attempt to feed on the rest of us, who accept responsibility for ourselves, and it will be their loss, as most people I know who take that personal responsibility seriously, are not going to be willing to "share" with others who "demand it" or worse, try to steal it!

The chief told my wife and I that we must take responosibility for our own protection and defense. This comes from a man who has spent 40 yrs in law enforcement. Do we believe him?

We don't think we can afford "not to"!

WC

The government's only legitimate job is to protect our lives our liberty and our property. Instead they have become the recyclers of the country's wealth by taking from those who have, giving to their friends and those who have not in exchange for their vote to be able to continue the process and of course skimming a little off for themselves. If you see who in Greece and in Egypt wnd in Libya and elsewhere who are clamoring for change in government it is not the wealthy whose wealth is being taken from them but those to whom it is being disributed. They are not prepared for austerity which means having to earn what you get rather than having it handed to you.

As I've sat through the first wave of the political bludgeoning we call the election process. With it's incessant bombardment of messages from incumbents, running agains, and newbies all proclaiming their family values , fiscal discipline, love of the American way of life, ability to bring consnesuss...blah blah blah blah...It occurred to me if all of them are so damned good , so smart,so fiscally responsible as they claim how come we are in such a mess?
I mean if this is the best our self proclaimed best and brightest can do ,is there any hope???

These are the leaders we elected. The problem is us. Can things get better? There's always hope, but I think they're going to get worse first.

My daughter told me last night that while at a local beach in Bridgton with my two granddaughters ages 2 1/2 and 1 1/2, she was forced to leave by the continual swearing of a group of local teenaged boys. Then her friend was verbally harassed a quarter mile away while walking her 2-year-old in a stroller. I feel like going over there today and discussing things with those boys. I'd like to reason with them the way Spencer would in a Robert Parker novel.

This is local zeitgeist. What will the future bring?

Bangor panel looks for solutions to problem behavior at Pickering Square

In the photo above, taken a few days ago in Pickering Square in Bangor, you can see the local loiterers. Most appear to be the end result of the Welfare state. You can see and smell it on them if you get close enough.

....."In recent months, downtown residents, merchants and visitors have expressed concerns about foul language, public intoxication, panhandling, brawls and other less-than-ideal conduct".......

......."Some businesspeople have told Bangor police and city officials that they have been asked to escort scared workers and customers to the parking garage, especially after the sun sets. Merchants worry that the problems in Pickering Square are driving customers away".......

It is driving good people, and their business away from downtown Bangor. Bangor is full of shelters, free food kitchens, methadone clinics, free health care and so on, everything the no accounts need to survive without working. Most of the people arrested in
Bangor lately are listed as "transients" with no homes. This is a local disgrace and a national one also. This is what government trying to "help people" has produced. It will be the end of our nation as we have known it if we don't do something about it.

I do NOT believe this can be fixed at the ballot box. I have long concluded that only an economic catastrophe, severely curtailing the government's ability to sustain these people, and the ultimate deaths of many of them, in various ways, before we will get our country back. These are the folks that will turn immediately to stealing, in order to obtain the necessities currently provided to them sans the benefit of them working for same. Just so you know, I have a son that is a member of this movement, and I don't feel good about what he does either!

Bangor Daily News Story

WC

WC, you are so right about not having these problems "fixed" by the political process. It happens when the people's attitude changes between the ears. I know that this isn't about the current political atmosphere, but this is where Dr. Paul won IMHO. He helped to change many minds in this country, and in the world. The press, as well as many people here on this forum, still can't figure that out.

Myself, with the atmosphere that is currently in place, I'm becoming more of an anarchist every day. But then again, this is just me.

I've been following this thread because I forgot the words to the song "Happy days are here again", anyone have them, please post them.

in the mean time I am a gloomy Gus as well. On the bright side, we have on this message board a collection of the finest minds regarding education, politics, and economics. Why don't you folks do a think tank exercise and find some jobs for the Pickering Square crowd so we can preemptively nip this future problem in the bud right now. Sleep better Wood, they are working on the solution as we speak.

I'm voting for Mitt Hussein Romney and his wife Michelle in November. Have a nice day.

Pretty hard to think Gov't can fix the problem considering they have caused it.

....." Why don't you folks do a think tank exercise and find some jobs for the Pickering Square crowd".......

The biggest problem with this situtation, and one that liberals totally fail to see, is that a very high percentage of these folks........don't want to work, and have no intention of working. Many come from families three or four generations into the welfare state and they have no institutional idea of how to work, or even that they should work. Growing up watching government provide all the needs for your parents and grandparents will do that to you.

If I could do only one thing, I would totally destroy the institution we call "welfare" as "dependancy" and "slavery" are always the end result.

Because of it we have millions of people who will never make any positive contributions to society, and will ramain a burden to all the rest of us, as long as they live!

The founders understood that "free people" were responsible for themselves. I wonder what they would think of this mess of Americans.

WC

As I have said many times on this blog every problem we face as a society and a nation can be traced right back to government. That is because government instead of protecting us from thieves has become the bigeest thief of all. It has stolen our property, it has stolen our dignity and it is stealing our will. In achieving this it has created a cadre of supporters and beneficiaries that I am afraid now outnumber those from whom the government steals. That is why the return to freedom and a free market will not occur at the ballot box.