How Jan Staples and Peter Cianchette Could Cost Romney The Election
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From an email received by liberty Republicans and Ron Paul suporters in Maine, Sunday, July 29:
"As you may have heard today, Jan Staples---the Maine Republican National Committeewoman who was defeated for re-election at the 2012 Maine Republican Convention---is striking back."
"After her loss at the Maine Republican Convention last May, Jan Staples (along with Peter Cianchette, Chairman of the Maine Mitt Romney Campaign), is now spearheading an effort to unseat the National Delegates who were rightfully elected at that convention. These National Delegates were voted on and properly elected by a majority of the State Republican Delegation. Now, Jan Staples is attempting to undo the democratic process..."
The relevant documents mention, among other things, the failure of the credentialing process, which, of course, was controlled by the same insiders who are unhappy about the Ron Paul delegates' wins. Doubtless their own efforts would have been deemed adequate had they been slightly in the majority.
That being said, consider that forming your opinion about this based on what "should" happen, or whether it is the privilege of the RNC to credential whomever they want (I believe it is), may be counterproductive. Due to their own self-interest, Romney supporters should not support this measure. This is because of the likely consequences of unseating the Maine delegates.
There is a compelling argument that unseating the delegates elected at the Maine Convention may cost Romney the election.
The argument is simple. First, in order to win the election, Romney needs the votes of a majority of Ron Paul supporters. As a low-ball estimate, let us say that just 10% of Republicans are backing Ron Paul. If you have been to a Maine GOP meeting recently, you will recognize this number as quite low, however Maine is a Ron Paul stronghold. 10% still seems like a reasonable lower bound nationally, given that
- Ron Paul won about 10% of State Conventions, despite the process in most States heavily favoring the majority
- About 29% of Republicans view Ron Paul as an acceptable candidate (http://politi.co/xMBurK - and since this argument revolves around voter turnout, let's also bear in mind that 41% of Republicans do NOT view Romney as an acceptable candidate)
Now, let's review the margins of victory in the last 3 Presidential elections (difference between winner's and loser's percentage popular vote, via Wikipedia)
2008 - 7.26%
2004 - 2.74%
2000 - 0.51%
Average - 3.5%
Modern Presidential elections are becoming increasingly close, by no accident. 2008 was an anomaly, and notably, a loss for the GOP. Bear in mind that, by and large, only half of the indicated percentage would have to change their vote in order to change the outcome of the election. If we throw out Obama's 2008 victory as an outlier (something that makes even more sense if you follow the trend back further or are more interested in Republican victories, as we are in this case), it is apparent that a typical Presidential election can easily hang on the outcome of 1-2% of voters.
I have already argued that Ron Paul supporters represent at least 10% of Republicans -- which is at least 5% of likely voters in the upcoming election.
Signs point to another close election, unlike 2008. The margin of victory will likely be much smaller than the number of Ron Paul supporters. Thus, Romney depends on the votes of Ron Paul supporters, QED.
I now argue that if the RNC fails to credential Maine delegates, a significant number of Ron Paul supporters across the nation may become so disillusioned that they fail to vote for Romney. Again, I am not arguing whether they "should" do this, I am arguing that it will happen.
To understand why, let's get inside the head of a Ron Paul supporter for a moment.
First, the typical Ron Paul supporter is currently planning on voting for Romney. I can't cite any specific evidence for this, but based on my readings and personal interactions, I would estimate that about 3/4ths of the Ron Paul supporters are currently planning on holding their nose and doing it, because
- They want to beat Obama
- They view Romney as the lesser of two evils
- They are invested in the Republican Party
Second, the typical Ron Paul supporter sees the overall results of State Conventions across the country as revealing some very disturbing things about the condition of democracy and fairness in the GOP. If you are a Romulan, rather than a Ronulan, you may not be aware of these incidents, and you may have your own take on them -- but the fact remains that Ron Paul supporters are very aware of them and are largely staggered at what they view as outright corruption in the GOP. Here are some of the incidents in question:
- In Louisiana, the democratically elected chair of the Convention is physically assaulted and ejected (http://bit.ly/M8OL1j see also http://bit.ly/QUHRRi)
- In Nevada, to avoid the democratic outcome they didn't like, establishment Republicans actually left the State Republican Party and joined a new organization "Team Nevada". The RNC has withdrawn monetary support from the Nevada State Committee (http://huff.to/L7iBEQ)
- In Oklahoma, GOP officials shut down the Convention when it became apparent that Ron Paul supporters were in the majority.
- In North Dakota, where Romney came in 3rd in the popular vote with 26% of the vote, he won this early caucus by a landslide when GOP officials refused to print the names of the majority of delegates on ballots (http://bit.ly/K6d3VE)
- In Iowa, the GOP chair was forced to resign in the wake of caucus manipulation -- http://nyti.ms/zcrKo0
- There is strong and compelling evidence of computer-based vote fraud in a number of elections, to which I can find no cogent rebuttal -- http://bit.ly/yUEPbE
Despite being aware of these incidents and a number of others, most Ron Paul supporters are still planning on voting for Romney.
However, that could change in an instant if delegates from Maine, Massachusetts, or other states where Ron Paul managed to work around these problems to win delegates are unseated. Why? Many are shocked by what they view as a disgracefully corrupt situation in the GOP, but Ron Paul's limited success has been a ray of light for most supporters.
All it will take is clear evidence that the GOP is fundamentally incapable of reform for many Ron Paul supporters to completely disengage. I believe that refusing delegates from yet another State would constitute the straw that breaks the camel's back. The fact that Ron Paul is being allowed to speak at the convention and count his delegate's victories is crucial for the future of the Republican Party, as anyone who appreciates the demographics arguments Pat Buchanan has been making lately (Has the Bell Begun To Toll for the GOP? - http://bit.ly/KrBePx and In the Long Run, Is the GOP Dead? - http://bit.ly/O8K21x) will see.
You may disagree with any number of arguments or claims here. But my argument does not turn on whether you agree with all of these claims. It is only necessary to admit that Ron Paul supporters will view this as yet another slap in the face and a subversion of the democratic process. Maine is on a short list of victories that currently has Ron Paul supporters convinced that working within the GOP may still be worthwhile. Taking it away may assuage Jan Staples' ego, but from the perspective of Romney supporters it would be disastrous. It may cost Romney the election.
If you agree, you can Sign the Petition to Support the Maine Delegation
Apollo, as I stated in the piece, I believe the majority of RP supporters are currently planning on voting for Romney, although it's unlikely that the substantial number brought from the Democratic Party will join them. I think my estimate of 3/4ths is reasonable, and it wouldn't be too difficult to improve that estimate with some informal polling.
Apollo. just for the record, Johnson was a Republican up until December 28, 2011.
This is the most important election of our lifetime, how often have we heard that.
Will any Ron Paul people vote for Romney?
Actually there has been a softening of not voting for Romney from people concerned about liberty, with recent events, and it has not so much to do with Romney, but that odious administration in the Whitehouse. It has become so odious, that we must hold our nose before even getting into the voting booth.
Tactics such as Staples and Cianchette help Obomba more than Romney, really stupid move for the GOP.
Sign the Petition in support of the Maine Delegation!
http://mainelibertyrepublican.wufoo.com/forms/petition-to-support-the-ma...
David, you really should make the phone number on the petition an option instead of required. I only have a cell and I don't give it out, that means I will not sign your petition.
When Republicans go to a firing squard, they stand in a circle.
TPP.....thank you for a thoughtful summary. For the most part I concur....however, I believe your wrong in the support for Romney. The Paul supporters I've spoken with will NOT vote for Romney at this time, even with the continued actions of the present administration. I fear the damage to our country that 4 more years of this president will bring. On a state level, I am appalled by the actions of the so called 'establishment' republicans. I am not a Paul supporter, not a Romney fan, but will vote for him...... I believe the RP's need to be embraced in the state party. The state GOP needs a good shake up. I do concur if this move to unseat delegates moves forward, it will have a national impact. I would hope that Ron Paul would also recognize the impact this president would have in another term and at least make luke warm endorsement......
jcmcards, we definitely have different impressions on that point. It may be that you're impression is based on some of the more vocal Paul supporters, who often take the position that they will not vote for Romney. But I stand by my assertion... most of the people I met during the campaign were strong conservatives, not stereotypical libertarians such as myself. Of course I have only spoken to those in my circle, but most of my contacts have told me they plan on voting for Romney.
BTW I hope you don't expect Paul to endorse Romney while he's still running against him -- even if it is only a symbolic run at this point. At least wait until after the convention :) But I don't expect that he will then either.
I am with TPP on this. I am an alternate delegate and wrote Staples and Cianchette a personal letter yesterday after they filed to have us yanked. I asked the question, even as a life long republican, if I witness first hand that Romney Co is corrupt then how can I bring myself to vote for him or tell others to vote for him? Vote Mitt Romney... he's 20% less corrupt than Obama? http://adventuresinautism.blogspot.com/2012/07/romney-maine-campaign-cha...
Apollo not all Ron Paul supporters are libertarian.
"I fear the damage to our country that 4 more years of this president will bring." Why? It will destroy the Dems and socialists and wake the American people up. Modern Americans are materialist swine, and until they are FORCED by circumstances to think about their heritage, they won't. There's always something to watch on TV, after all...
Romney is just the opposite. He will "manage" the decline, and all of the blame will go on the GOP for his statist equivocations. How much good did Nixon and Hoover do for the Republican Party? The difference, of course, is that they were far more authentic and capable than Mittens.
What an amazing election - TWO Manchurian candidates, and the nation on the edge of an abyss. For Heaven's sake, let OBAMA drive Thelma and Louise's car over the cliff, BECAUSE THERE WON'T BE ANY REPUBLICANS IN THE CAR. Mitt can get a job driving Miss Daisy somewhere, in his role as Ward Cleaver, although in reality he's just a grown up version of Eddie Haskell. And LePage will get 55% of the vote in 2014. Sounds like a plan to me:-)
Three Pipe Problem, thanks for a well-thought-out post. I too think your Paul supporter Romney percentage is too high. I'm a Paul supporter, and find no solace in the economic or social platforms of either major candidate. I do not trust either with our defense. I don't know, but I could imagine there are many more people of this mindset.
It's possible that my number is too high, that the damage is already done. However, my number of 3/4ths could be a lot lower and the point would stand -- especially since the 10% number is almost certainly low. Moreover, I think it's quite rare for politically interested people to actually abstain from voting for President. I say this even though I will probably do so. I think few Ron Paul supporters with any sort of conservative orientation are going to pass up a chance to vote against Obama... although most RP supporters who are members of this forum may do so, we aren't necessarily representative. Sure, there is the Libertarian, but Ron Paul has made a convincing case, both verbally and in results, that third parties are, uhm, "pragmatically challenged".
I of course believe that if people are insulted enough, they will abstain. Due to what used to be known as "loss aversion" and is now more commonly known as the "sunk costs fallacy", I believe that taking away seats that have been won will be perceived as much more insulting than most of what has transpired so far.
Thrasybulus, I liked your comment. It's pretty representative of my personal views, although I didn't have my personal views in mind when I posted this. Now I'm off to Google "Thrasybulus".
Three Pipe, remember that Independents are the largest voting bloc, and the Republicans are maybe only 1/3 of the voting population. If Ron Paul has 10% of the Republicans, that is 3% of the entire voting population. That is certainly enough to decide the outcome though. But I think at least half would have gone for Gary Johnson in any case. So you could be right, but the only thing is, is Maine really becoming a big enough issue nationally with the Ron Paul people? I haven't seen any news reports on it, or even any emails from Ron Paul or Rand Paul. The hard core Ron Paul people might be following it on blogs, but I don't see the Ron Paul supporters nationally getting ginned up over Maine.
In some ways, I think you have this about right. It's not a huge margin, but the conservative elements of the RP movement may still be enough to change the election. And so it makes sense for us all to treat each other with respect and see if there is any common ground.
But I don't think you're right to set aside those independents in RP's camp... many would have voted for Romney, or still will, depending on how things go. If anything, RP was much more effective at recruiting indies than others and this will intensify the effect I'm talking about.
If you're subscribed to RP or C4L emails, you will have noticed that they rarely get into the fray of these scandals. However, you had better believe that Maine made the front page of The Daily Paul and will continue to, which is a better place to take the pulse IMO. You seem to misunderstand the RP communication structure. Almost every RP supporter reads the Daily Paul, well, daily. Read through a few weeks, and you'll see how avidly these small-State scandals are being followed and agonized over on a national scale.
I just don't see how Jan Staples and Peter Cianchette are engaging in shenanigans that differ in anyway from what I witnessed at the caucuses or Convention. I was told over and over by "liberty" minded individuals that their group "followed the rules," which is debatable, but to each his or her own.
The rules are a part of the process, even after the Convention. Like any other delegate at the Convention, I'd like to expect that the process that I participated in was followed and completed by the rules that govern our State and National party. I'd hope that Ron Paul supporters would agree.
If Staples and Cianchette have a legitimate complaint, how is that different than any other complaint that "liberty" minded individuals have levied against "the establishment?" I've witnessed a few. Rules are a two-way street and both groups should be permitted to use and required to abide by them. We cannot expect one group of individuals to follow rules while another group cries foul, or worse, expects a free pass based on their newness to the process.
Disenfranchisement will only be the result of rules not being followed, not those who levied what they must feel is a legitimate complaint.
Jan Staples is a class act, I've been a fan of hers for a long time! Lets hold fire, investigate, and see if she is correct.
To date have no intention of voting for either Manchurian.
Gary Johnson
Much ado about nothing.
What’s next?
Mitt Romney’s national people will sit down with Ron Paul’s national people (who are immeasurably more reasonable than his local people) and strike a deal that will split Maine’s delegation between the two candidates.
Betsy, I heard rumors that this was offered to the Maine Ron Paul leadership the week before the state convention, and they refused. There is no way either side would agree to it now. Besides, even if Ron Paul himself told Brakey to reach some agreement, he would refuse.
Appears to be all about a speech, a 15 minute speech. Cape Elizabeth republican and country club Cianchette don't want to listen to some speech from some wingnut, Romney's convention is all about and for the rich and powerful, no middle class need apply.
Still quite interesting that they aren't challenging Lepages nomination for delegate he was voted in on the same slate, the exact same wingnuts and cheats voted and got Lepage to be a delegate. It's laughably if it wasn't so damn dishonest, but this is what we all should know about politics. They are all a bunch of crooks.
As a Republican governor, LePage is an automatic delegate.
As a Republican governor, LePage is an automatic delegate.
That's not accurate at all, Apollo.
""For us," Staples said, "it's trying to get back control of our party -- ."" (from the link provided by apollo)
this really bothers me.
They don't like being out voted unless it is by the democrats
I have posted before that minority status is their comfort zone. Actually governing is work. The missed opportunities this session are stunning.
Whose party?
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Were any Ron Paul supporters going to support Romney anyway? You have Gary Johnson, the Libertarian, speaking at your own pre convention rally in Tampa.