How Many Jobs Will Little Kyoto Cost?

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Bob Stone
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How Many Jobs Will Little Kyoto Cost?

`Now one can breathe more easily,' said the Knight, putting back his shaggy hair with both hands, and turning his gentle face and large mild eyes to Alice. She thought she had never seen such a strange-looking soldier in all her life. He was dressed in tin armour, which seemed to fit him very badly, and he had a queer-shaped little deal box fastened across his shoulder, upside-down, and with the lid hanging open. Alice looked at it with great curiosity. `I see you're admiring my little box.' the Knight said in a friendly tone. `It's my own invention -- to keep clothes and sandwiches in. You see I carry it upside-down, so that the rain can't get in.' `But the things can get out,' Alice gently remarked. `Do you know the lid's open?' `I didn't know it,' the Knight said, a shade of vexation passing over his face. `Then all the things much have fallen out! And the box is no use without them.' He unfastened it as he spoke, and was just going to throw it into the bushes, when a sudden though seemed to strike him, and he hung it carefully on a tree. `Can you guess why I did that?' he said to Alice. Alice shook her head. `In hopes some bees my make a nest in it -- then I should get the honey.' `But you've got a bee-hive -- or something like one -- fastened to the saddle,' said Alice. `Yes, it's a very good bee-hive,' the Knight said in a discontented tone, `one of the best kind. But not a single bee has come near it yet. And the other thing is a mouse-trap. I suppose the mice keep the bees out -- or the bees keep the mice out, I don't know which.' `I was wondering what the mouse-trap was for,' said Alice. `It isn't very likely there would be any mice on the horse's back.' `Not very likely, perhaps,' said the Knight: `but if they do come, I don't choose to have them running all about.' `You see,' he went on after a pause, `it's as well to be provided for everything. That's the reason the horse has all those anklets round his feet.' `But what are they for?' Alice asked in a tone of great curiosity. `To guard against the bites of sharks,' the Knight replied. `It's an invention of my own.
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Bob Stone
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How Many Jobs Will Little Kyoto Cost?

With great fanfare, JEB signed Maine's version of the Kyoto Accords into law today. WCSH loudly trumpeted Maine's "leadership" in the fight against "global warming" (whatever that is).I think the US Senate once failed to ratify Kyoto by a vote of 99 to 0. That didn't stop Maine's socialists!One of the provisions: Reduce C02 emissions to 1990 levels.Some moron was interviewed talking about all of the tropical diseases that were inching up the coast.

Bob Stone
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Re: How Many Jobs Will Little Kyoto Cost?

Add another provision: Reduce CO2 emissions by 80% over the long term. Anyone concerned yet?

Anonymous
Re: How Many Jobs Will Little Kyoto Cost?

Clean air sounds like a good idea to me.

Jon Reisman
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Re: How Many Jobs Will Little Kyoto Cost?

Carbon dioxide is not a pollutant. Exhaling is not a polluting activity.

Anonymous
Re: How Many Jobs Will Little Kyoto Cost?

CO2 pollution is not a good idea.

Melvin Udall
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Re: How Many Jobs Will Little Kyoto Cost?

What is CO2 pollution? Humans and animals exhale it. It's all natural. Plants and trees inhale it. That's all natural.

Anonymous
Re: How Many Jobs Will Little Kyoto Cost?

Overload a closed system with too much of anything and you pollute the system. CO2 pollution is not a good idea. Clean air is.

Al Greenlaw
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Re: How Many Jobs Will Little Kyoto Cost?

Wingman: Please help the cause, don't exhale! ;) Al :p

Anonymous
Re: How Many Jobs Will Little Kyoto Cost?

Al, I'll do my part at the CO2 end if you do yours at the methane end.

Melvin Udall
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Re: How Many Jobs Will Little Kyoto Cost?

So the preferred state is global cooling? Temperatures are always cycling up or down; it would be virtually impossible to keep them totally flat.Who's going to be the CO2 monitor to make sure we don't overachieve?Maybe the tropical diseases were meant as a natural force correction for global warming.

Jon Reisman
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Re: How Many Jobs Will Little Kyoto Cost?

From ENS:
[url=http://ens-news.com/ens/jun2003/2003-06-26-09.asp]http://ens-news.com/en...Maine Sets Global Warming Reduction GoalsAUGUSTA, Maine, June 26, 2003 (ENS) – With Governor John Baldacci’s signature, Maine today became the first state in the nation to enact a law setting goals for the reduction of global warming emissions.
The legislation requires Maine to develop a climate change action plan to reduce carbon dioxide to 1990 levels by 2010, 10 percent below 1990 levels by 2020, and by as much as 75 to 80 percent over the long term, as agreed to by the New England Governors and Eastern Canadian Premiers. "I am proud that Maine leads the nation in setting responsible climate change goals," said Baldacci. "Maine's law paves the way for others to join us in a responsible approach to address the risks of global warming." While the federal government has deleted climate change information from EPA reports, Maine is taking action, said Sue Jones of the Natural Resources Council of Maine, the group that spearheaded the campaign to pass this law. "The law will help Maine do its part to help reduce the threat of climate change through energy efficiency, clean renewable energy and other actions that save money and protect the environment," Jones said. Carbon dioxide, or CO2, forms when oil, coal, and gas are burned. It creates a heat trapping blanket that is raising temperatures around the globe. "My legislative colleagues recognize the impact climate change will have on Maine's economy, environment, and quality of life," said Representative Ted Koffman of Bar Harbor, the lead sponsor of the bill. "The challenges posed by global warming will be especially felt by future generations,” Koffman said. “The breakthrough legislation signed today will bring together private and public interests to collaboratively develop a cost effective plan to reduce global warming while saving energy in the process." Maine joins other eastern states that are tackling global warming issues. In 1999, New Jersey established a goal of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 3.5 percent below 1990 levels by the year 2005 and issued an action plan in December 1999. In December 2001, New Hampshire issued a menu of policy options to achieve the goals established by the New England Governors-Eastern Canadian Premiers Climate Action Plan. The state still needs to develop a plan with specific reductions from state level or regional level policies, and a concrete timeline. Massachusetts is drafting a climate action plan, designed to meet or exceed the regional goals established by the New England Governors and Eastern Canadian Premiers. In July 2002, Rhode Island published a Climate Action Plan designed to meet the greenhouse gas emission targets of the New England Governors-Eastern Canadian Premiers agreement. In August 2002, the governor of Vermont issued an executive order establishing a goal of reducing that state's greenhouse gas emissions by more than 25 percent over the next decade, consistent with the regional goals.

threeifbywire
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Re: How Many Jobs Will Little Kyoto Cost?

Largely from non-repiratory human activity, atmospheric levels of CO2 have increased from 288 ppmv in 1850 at the beginning of the Industrial Revolution to 367 ppmv in 1998. The atmospheric concentrations of CO2 affect global climate.So, Jon et al, what should we -- as rational, responsible and accountable entities -- do?

Bob Stone
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Re: How Many Jobs Will Little Kyoto Cost?

I thought that most of the air pollution problem in Maine is created in the Midwest. Please correct my understanding someone.Also, I thought that ice takes up more volume than liquid state water. If ice melts, how then will the sea level rise?[ 06-27-2003: Message edited by: Bob Stone ]

Jon Reisman
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Re: How Many Jobs Will Little Kyoto Cost?

If every country implemented Kyoto, the models predict that 7 one hundredths of a degree in warming would be averted. This at a crushing cost of 2-3% of GDP per year (as in basically all our economic growth). We should invest in research and technology for nukes, climate engineering and climate adaptation. We should put a 100% tariff on oil from the Persian Gulf and call it the terrorism and global warming avoidance fee. We should have an open debate on adopting the precautionary principle. We should have a vote in the US Senate on Kyoto and on authorizing the New England Governors/Eastern Canadian Premiers Climate Change Agreement. We should mandate that the Governor and our lady Senators drive hybrid sedans. How's that for starters?

threeifbywire
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Re: How Many Jobs Will Little Kyoto Cost?

Bob, I'm no expert, but I believe that the complaint about pollution from the midwest's coal burning plants has more to do with SO2 and NOx emissions than CO2.While you're correct that the melting of a floating iceberg will not affect sea level. ice that melts from land-supported ice caps and glaciers will raise sea level.

threeifbywire
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Re: How Many Jobs Will Little Kyoto Cost?

Thanks, Jon. I'll chew on that, and respond later. Real work immediately distracts.

Jean Carbonneau
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Re: How Many Jobs Will Little Kyoto Cost?

From time to time, I watch Dave Santaro on WGME, and I believe in May, he stated that since the previous September, the average temp in Maine was below normal. Of course, no one can forget the winter we just experienced, and the relatively cool spring, and even before this heat wave, June was relatively cool.This is nonsense hogwash garbarge.

Butch Moore
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Re: How Many Jobs Will Little Kyoto Cost?

quote: Largely from non-repiratory human activity, atmospheric levels of CO2 have increased from 288 ppmv in 1850 at the beginning of the Industrial Revolution to 367 ppmv in 1998.

Do you have a source for this? Is the 1850 level an estimated or measured value? If it's measured, I'd be curious to compare the testing methods from 1850 and their accuracy compared to 1998, and who did the testing.

quote: The atmospheric concentrations of CO2 affect global climate.

How much, and using what model? For every model on climate change, there is another that contradicts it. Non green or PC models just don't get attention or publicity.And, before someone starts with the "everyone knows it" line, remember there was a time when everyone "knew" the Earth was flat and at the center of the universe. A lot of things people "knew" have changed since then, and I'm sure a lot will change in the future.

Bob Stone
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Re: How Many Jobs Will Little Kyoto Cost?

three...How much have the polar ice caps melted in the past 150 years? How were they measured in 1850?

Bob Stone
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Re: How Many Jobs Will Little Kyoto Cost?

I understand that farmers in NZ now have to pay a tax on cattle because they fart and create 'warming'. Look for a bill in the Maine legislature soon. Probably from the moron who is worried about the tropical disease moving its way up the coast.I think he should be more concerned about an Ebola outbreak from the Gabonese the left just started to re-settle into Lewiston.

Al Greenlaw
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Re: How Many Jobs Will Little Kyoto Cost?

quote:Originally posted by Wingman:
[b]Al, I'll do my part at the CO2 end if you do yours at the methane end.[/b]

Wingman: I gave up bean suppahs a long time ago. I couldn't stand the hassle at home. I eat only foods low in methane.
:D Al :eek:

Mike Travers
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Re: How Many Jobs Will Little Kyoto Cost?

"It creates a heat trapping blanket [b]that is raising temperatures around the globe."[/b] This is presented as a statement in the news article, not as a quote from an "expert". Shouldn't it say [b]allegedly[/b]?

Roger Ek
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Re: How Many Jobs Will Little Kyoto Cost?

It should indeed say "allegedly". The miniscule increase in CO2 is part of the reason we are able to feed the world. Our bountiful harvests could feed the entire world very comfortably if Maoists did not use starvation as a weapon. Most starvation in the world is political, not economic or resource related. Plants just grow better in CO2 rich areas. Florists supplant their greenhouses with CO2. Greens talk about "sequestering" carbon. Paper, furniture, houses and pianos are all made of wood and that fiber is, according to them, "sequestered". Turn it loose!The highest and best use of most waste paper is fuel. When you recycle a newspaper the next generation of that fiber is contained in a sheet of newsprint that is weaker, has lower printability, is more expensive to produce, generates tousands of tons annually of chemical sludge and has poorer runnability on the paper machine at a higher cost. When you burn a ton of newsprint for fuel you get 8,000 BTUs of energy per pound as compared with coal at 12,000 BTUs per pound with coal. Newsprint as fuel costs less to haul; it's closer to the power plant; has no suphur to contribute to acid rain and produces vital fertilizer for our forests to grow on. There is virtually no ash to haul and no chemical sludge. Some papers are indeed economical to recycle. Print waste, envelope trimmings etc made of bright white papers are readily recycled and should not be burned. Also, corrugated cartons are economical to recycle. I have posted the economic impact of political recycling here before.[ 06-27-2003: Message edited by: Roger Ek ]

threeifbywire
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Re: How Many Jobs Will Little Kyoto Cost?

quote:Originally posted by Bob Stone:
[b]three...How much have the polar ice caps melted in the past 150 years? How were they measured in 1850?[/b]

Bob, below is a quote from the summary of the 2001 report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). As I understand it, ice sheets worldwide generally are shrinking. While it's tempting to directly link this as confirming evidence of increasing global temperature, it's important to acknowledge that ice cover is a function also of precipitation, and is historically subject to normal fluctuations. [url=http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar/wg1/064.htm]http://www.grida.no/cli... contains data on the fluctuations of mountain glaciers.In regards to your previous question, it's interesting to note that the Greenland and Antarctic continental ice sheets contain enough water to raise global sea levels by 70 meters. (http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar/wg1/416.htm).--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
[b]Snow cover and ice extent have decreased.[/b]
Satellite data show that there are very likely to have been decreases of about 10% in the extent of snow cover since the late 1960s, and ground-based observations show that there is very likely to have been a reduction of about two weeks in the annual duration of lake and river ice cover in the mid- and high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, over the 20th century.There has been a widespread retreat of mountain glaciers in non-polar regions during the 20th century. Northern Hemisphere spring and summer sea-ice extent has decreased by about 10 to 15% since the 1950s. It is likely7 that there has been about a 40% decline in Arctic sea-ice thickness during late summer to early autumn in recent decades and a considerably slower decline in winter sea-ice thickness.[b]Global average sea level has risen and ocean heat content has increased.[/b]
Tide gauge data show that global average sea level rose between 0.1 and 0.2 metres during the 20th century.Global ocean heat content has increased since the late 1950s, the period for which adequate observations of sub-surface ocean temperatures have been available. [url=http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar/wg1/005.htm]http://www.grida.no/cli...
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

quote:Originally posted by Butch Moore:
[b]quote: Largely from non-respiratory human activity, atmospheric levels of CO2 have increased from 288 ppmv in 1850 at the beginning of the Industrial Revolution to 367 ppmv in 1998. Do you have a source for this? Is the 1850 level an estimated or measured value? If it's measured, I'd be curious to compare the testing methods from 1850 and their accuracy compared to 1998, and who did the testing.[/b]

[url=http://cdiac.esd.ornl.gov/pns/current_ghg.html]http://cdiac.esd.ornl.gov... will take you to this data and a discussion of the methodology. There's isn't much scientific dispute about past levels of atmospheric CO2. It's measured contemporaneously and cross-checked using a variety of proxy data from air bubbles trapped in dateable strata in ice cores, pollen in lake sediments, carbon isotopes in tree growth rings, etc. There are reliable methods to ascertain the atmospheric composition and climate over much longer ranges of geologic time using a ratio of isotopes in calcium carbonate deposits from marine diatoms and foraminifera. The past isn't subject to the hazards of modeling -- it's the future that is.

quote:Originally posted by Butch Moore:
[b]
quote: The atmospheric concentrations of CO2 affect global climate. How much, and using what model? For every model on climate change, there is another that contradicts it. Non green or PC models just don't get attention or publicity.
And, before someone starts with the "everyone knows it" line, remember there was a time when everyone "knew" the Earth was flat and at the center of the universe. A lot of things people "knew" have changed since then, and I'm sure a lot will change in the future.
[/b]

As a general effect, the mechanism of CO2 as a heat trapping gas is not much disputed. All other variables being the same, an increase in CO2 in the atmosphere will slow the rate that earth emits infrared to space, thereby increasing global temperature. What makes it complicated, of course, is that climate is an enormously complex and dynamic system of dependent variables and many other mechanisms, such as the oceans' dynamics of heat transfer, contribute greatly.The abrupt 25%-30% current increase in atmospheric CO2 is real, as is a contemporary 0.6 degree increase in global average surface temperature. The amount of additional carbon in the atmosphere corresponds roughly but convincingly to the amount of carbon oxidized through our burning of fossil fuels over the past 150 years, although some smaller percentage of it apparently results from changes in vegetation resulting from human land use. What this means for our future is, for better or worse, a matter of current experiment. While there surely is evidence that atmospheric carbon levels fluctuated through these ranges well before mankind was around, the same evidence confirms that the earth's climate is not necessarily a stable one, and that it has a history of abrupt and sometimes inhospitable reversals. To assume that we as humans can significantly alter the composition of the atmosphere, as we are now doing, without climatic consequence requires formidable faith.[ 06-27-2003: Message edited by: threeifbywire ]

Butch Moore
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Re: How Many Jobs Will Little Kyoto Cost?

quote: There's [b]isn't much scientific dispute [/b]about past levels of atmospheric CO2.

quote: As a general effect, the mechanism of CO2 as a heat trapping gas [b]is not much disputed.[/b]

Sorry, but this sounds like the "everyone knows" argument to me. There is never dispute in scientific journals when grant funding is on the line and you'll lose yours if you say anything against the status quo.

quote: There are reliable methods to ascertain the atmospheric composition and climate over much longer ranges of geologic time using a ratio of isotopes in calcium carbonate deposits from marine diatoms and foraminifera.

This was being studied at the University of Maine at Orono several years ago. The results I heard about from the researchers I spoke with said we are headed into a period of global cooling now, not warming. I've tried contacting the school since to get the final data, but no one will return my emails. It's probably buried someplace because the results were too politically incorrect to get published. And yes, that [b][i]does[/b][/i] happen, I've seen it.

threeifbywire
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Re: How Many Jobs Will Little Kyoto Cost?

Butch,I know a few of the researchers at Orono's Institute for Quaternary Studies also. And, like you, I also noticed a certain change of interest among them some years ago as their emphasis shifted, first from global cooling toward warning about global warming, and then finally settled as a greater (if less specific) concern about unpredictable climate change and the hazards of a sudden and catastrophic resurgence of an epoch of cooling. They are, after all, the ice-age experts there. But the scientific cynic would conclude that their funding does better when the research projects tend cooler. But I'll not play the cynic here.Call me naive and old fashioned, but I still believe in peer-reviewed science as the nearest thing we can expect as an objective understanding of reality. Once you start questioning that, there's no safe place to land and you might as well say all opinions are equivalently valid.[ 06-27-2003: Message edited by: threeifbywire ]

threeifbywire
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Re: How Many Jobs Will Little Kyoto Cost?

quote:Originally posted by Jon Reisman:
[b]We should invest in research and technology for nukes, climate engineering and climate adaptation. We should put a 100% tariff on oil from the Persian Gulf and call it the terrorism and global warming avoidance fee. We should have an open debate on adopting the precautionary principle. We should have a vote in the US Senate on Kyoto and on authorizing the New England Governors/Eastern Canadian Premiers Climate Change Agreement. We should mandate that the Governor and our lady Senators drive hybrid sedans. How's that for starters?[/b]

Jon,I'm not necessarily opposed to fission power, as long as there's a place to put the waste. I seem to recall Orono's Richard Hill saying that if spent fuel rods were entombed inert in glass, he'd happily take a chunk as a perpetual heat source for his cellar. Perhaps there are more Dick Hills about.Really, I find nothing to disapprove of in your suggestions, except that they're perhaps a trifle centrally planned. And, seriously, I think you hit the heart of the argument calling for open discussion about the precautionary principle.

Butch Moore
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Re: How Many Jobs Will Little Kyoto Cost?

quote: Call me naive and old fashioned, but I still believe in peer-reviewed science...

Unfortunately, I believe "peer reviewed" science has become too politically and financially motivated. It's enough to make an honest person sick, such as the "peer review" the federal agencies and the NAS did on Atlantic salmon. I guess I've seen too much corruption and have become more and more cynical as I get older. Who was it that said something like "the more you know, the uglier everything seems?"[ 06-28-2003: Message edited by: Butch Moore ]

Doug Thomas
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Re: How Many Jobs Will Little Kyoto Cost?

Suppose we were able to reduce CO2 production in Maine by reducing our economy 2% or 3% a year. Since we're only 1/2 of 1% of the total US population it won't amount to a yellow hole in the snow.How much CO2 is produced when a million acres of forest is destroyed by a forest fire? According to the same crowd that wants to destroy our economy, forest fires are a great and wonderful thing. More everyday it looks as though we have a Governor who wants to do the right thing, and isn't scared to act, but just doesn't have a clue what is required to create a job or run a business.

Bob Stone
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Re: How Many Jobs Will Little Kyoto Cost?

If this legislation is ever implemented, LD 845 will turn out to be the most significant legislation in the history of Maine. Maine will become a national park. Just think for a minute about what this means:CO2 emissions reduced 80% percent from 2003 levels over an undefined 'long term'.Folks, there are but a few ways to reduce CO2:1. Reduce the number of gasoline engines.
2. Increase the gas mileage of gasoline engines.
3. Reduce industrial C02 emissions.
3. Reduce electrical plant CO2 emissions.Other than getting cows to fart less and all of us to cut down our respiration rate, that's about all that can be done.An 80% reduction will clobber Maine. And for what? To solve a "crisis" that remains unproved?I hope the unions remember well the date they voted the Democrats into power. LD 845 will make the paper and shipbuilding industries (you can imagine how much of Maine's CO2 those operations generate) artifacts of the past, just like the log drives on Maine's rivers. I kind of feel sorry for the hapless union types...wait a minute, no I don't...they've done it to themselves.Maybe the Governor and his Democrat cronies in the legislature ought to buy electric cars and set up windmills to charge them up every night. A friend has an electric and he says they are great as long as you have one person on board and you are not trying to get up a hill.Baldacci's State Trooper can follow along in a chase car as he whines around Maine! Forget going to Rangeley...the electric won't make it up the mountain.

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