Where are Maine's closest races in the House and Senate?

I'm concerned about the seat held by Lois Snowe-Mello. When she was defeated for one term [by 100 votes] it was the Auburn vote that got her, The Dems are running former Auburn Mayor and former [State Rep or State Senator?] John Cleaveland.
On the other side, the House race that should be exciting to watch is newcomer Tim LaJoie who is challenging Peggy "Fair Share" Rotundo.

I am also concerned about Snowe-Mello Mike. We are really going to have to work hard for her.

Several Republicans who defeated incumbent Democrats in 2010 have been targeted by the state Democrat organization to take back the seats. Based on a conversation I had with someone from the Dark Side, I am led to believe that they will direct mail and lit drop lots of stuff with LePage gaffes and try to link the Republican legislator to LePage.

The problem with them turning legislative races into a referendum on LePage is that the turnout in November will be different from 2010: it is a presidential year and more Democrats will turn out to try to save Obama than turned out for their lackluster gubernatorial candidate. And those additional voters will be knee-jerk partisans, not independent thinkers.

So GOP legislative campaigns had better be identifying core base, constantly updating voter lists and do a strong GOTV to offset the Save Obama activists GOTV.

Ballotpedia has a wrapup of the 2010 Maine Legislative races with a few holes. There is a list of defeated Democratic House members, but you have to click on some of the names to find the winners. I did notice, however, that some of the defeated Democrats are trying another run this year.

It looks like 16 House Democrats lost in 2010 but no Republican incumbents were defeated. Is that correct?

Yes (plus one incumbent House Democrat who lost in the primary; the Democrats held that seat in November 2010), according to this list and this summation.

"The Dems are running former Auburn Mayor and former [State Rep or State Senator?] John Cleaveland."

State Senator, from 1990 to 1998. In his first two terms he represented Auburn, Poland, Mechanic Falls and New Gloucester and in his second two terms he represented Auburn, Poland, Durham and part of Lewiston (I've read Bob Stone describe that area roughly as Holy Cross Parish). The Senate district he's running in now is Auburn, Poland, Durham and New Gloucester, so entirely territory he has represented before and kind of midway between the two districts he represented in the 1990s.

It's pretty sad if you're already deciding winners and losers instead of supporting ALL candidates for office. With help any of us can be elected.

Robert: Some parties put up candidates who do nothing more than fill a space on the ballot. To say that anyone has a chance to be elected is technically true. But in the real world, it isn't.

I'm looking at races where incumbents were defeated two years ago and want to make a comeback, or districts where the opposition party is putting up a candidate with high name recognition and-or experience.

And the only reason I started this thread was to see if anyone else shared Mid-Coast Mainers prediction that the Democrats will retake the Maine House.

As the saying goes, I have no dog in this fight. I kept my promise and dropped my GOP registration on June 13, the day after I voted in the primary. I am now unenrolled.

I think the establishment is in for a real shock. Rural Maine can no longer be taken for granted. It isn't indifference. It would be better described as a cold rage. I don't know whether folks will just stay home or vote the whole batch out. This is not just some discomforting attitude. It is far more primal than that.

In the Cumberland North Yarmouth area I expect that a Democrat, Steve Moriarity will take the seat of Meredith Strang Burgess. I can't recall the last time a Democrat held that seat - at least 50 years if not more. In the Gray - North Yarmouth district I think Sue Austin will reclaim her seat from the Democrat Ann Graham. So, a wash in that area.

While many think the dem turnout will be strong, I am predicting just the opposite. Dems who see the truth behind Obamacare (or Obamacaid as some call it in 5 years) will not show that day.

Robert: I think you overlook the gay marriage referendum which will drive turnout of some who normally do not vote. Plus, after years of two nominal R's representing Maine in the U.S. Senate, there will be some Democrats motivated to get one of their own back into the chamber and they look forward to voting for HIM.

Vic, it's my thought that people in Maine are actually tired of the entiure gay rights parade to the polls every year given this is the 7th time we've seen some manipulation of what they want...they just keep hoping enough older folks die and are replaced by younger voters who might turn the tide in their favor.

Doug Thomas and Ray Wallace are in trouble in Deep Red districts. Doug Damon feels vulnerable - the Dems usually bring in the out of state Job Corps robots by bus, but he should survive. Wish we could get rid of the sinister demagogue Jeff McCabe - anybody got any word on that race?

IMHO Herbie Clark doesn't represent much of a threat to Doug Thomas outside of Clark's home base. Millinocket would vote for a goat for the Maine Legislature if it was registered as a Democrat.

Although I don't agree with your description of Jeff McCabe, he is facing a tough challenge this year. Republican Don Skillings is well-known hockey coach, business owner (State Farm Insurance) and - like McCabe - serves on the Skowhegan Planning Board. Both belong to the Elks and Skillings is also a Mason and Shriner.

Flood beats Wheaton in GOP Senate Caucus.

So is this good or bad for the Republicans? They need to hold this seat to keep their majority, I'd say.

Why has the GOP already decided which races can be won? Why not help all candidates? Why are some candidates more concerned about building a coalition for their coveted leadership role and less concerned about actually being elected? The GOP won 2 years ago and apparently has learned absolutely nothing about how to win, and how to lead. Yes it's going to be an itneresting campaign season!

Well, let's see. I posted my question about the Flood-Wheaton caucus at 8 a.m. this morning, and the only response was Robert Reed criticizing the whole theme of the thread - 11 hours later.

So screw it. Shut it down for all I care.

The Senate District 21 race (the one Flood won the caucus nod for) now has its own AMG thread here.

I for one, had enjoyed reading this thread.

I think it's important to note that, regardless of how hotly contested these races are, or how well candidates are supported by either major party, the rise of convenience voting means most of these races will be effectively decided by mid-October.

That's one reason I am lobbying my editor to let me do candidate profiles in late-August and early-September, before absentee ballots go out, rather than waiting until the few weeks before the in-person election, as has been past practice.

I think it's also likely this year that, for statewide and national races at least, this year's October surprise will come closer to Labor Day.

That's my opinion. Your mileage may vary . . .